I can't make an actual bracket, but this is close enough. A couple things to keep in mind when making out this field.
First, no member of a conference should meet another member of the same conference until the Elite Eight; however, in the case of the Big East, they have 11 teams, so that is impossible to avoid. Therefore, it is permissible for Big East members to meet in the sweet 16, and I used the other criteria for the remaining conferences.
Second, no rematches in the first round for the regular season. I initially had Xavier playing Georgia so I had to change that.
In order, I rank the #1 seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame. If all one seeds make the final four, then Ohio State would play Notre Dame, and Kansas would play Pittsburgh.
East
1 Ohio State
16 UCSB/Alabama St
8 George Mason
9 Richmond
5 Texas A&M
12 Memphis
4 Louisville
13 Bucknell
6 Cincinnati
11 Florida State
3 Florida
14 Morehead St
7 Xavier
10 Michigan
2 San Diego State
15 Northern Colorado
Southwest
1 Kansas
16 UALR/UTSA
8 Villanova
9 Michigan State
5 Arizona
12 Utah State
4 BYU
13 Oakland
6 Kansas State
11 Georgia
3 Syracuse
14 Saint Peters
7 UNLV
10 Penn State
2 North Carolina
15 Boston
Southeast
1 Pittsburgh
16 UNC-Ashville
8 Temple
9 Missouri
5 West Virginia
12 USC/Va Tech
4 Purdue
13 Princeton
6 Vanderbilt
11 Illinois
3 Texas
14 Indiana State
7 Old Dominion
10 Gonzaga
2 UCONN
15 Akron
West
1 Notre Dame
16 Hampton
8 UCLA
9 Tennessee
5 Saint Johns
12 Clemson/VCU
4 Wisconsin
13 Belmont
6 Georgetown
11 Butler
3 Kentucky
14 Long Island
7 Washington
10 Marquette
2 Duke
15 Wofford
Big East-11
Big Ten-7
ACC-5
Big 12-5
SEC-5
Pac 10-4
MWC-3
CAA-3
Atlantic 10-3
22 One Bid Leagues
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Bracketology: Bubble Chaos
Yesterday I thought was a day that some bubble teams would separate themselves from the pack. Turns out it was the other way around as Clemson, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Richmond, and Alabama all won games. To make things worse, presumed bubble safety teams such as Illinois, Florida State and Georgia, lost.
To make things worse, as I type this UTEP is hosting the C-USA tournament and has an early 9-0 lead on Memphis (another bubble team).
So how does one sort this out today? Well, at this point, I say let the games play out and figure it out tomorrow. I will say that I do believe Michigan State has a bid, and Illinois, Georgia, and Florida State will still make the field (although that could change).
With Penn State's win, i will put them in the field and take out USC, who lost in the Pac 10 Semifinals last night to Arizona.
To make things worse, as I type this UTEP is hosting the C-USA tournament and has an early 9-0 lead on Memphis (another bubble team).
So how does one sort this out today? Well, at this point, I say let the games play out and figure it out tomorrow. I will say that I do believe Michigan State has a bid, and Illinois, Georgia, and Florida State will still make the field (although that could change).
With Penn State's win, i will put them in the field and take out USC, who lost in the Pac 10 Semifinals last night to Arizona.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Friday, March 10th, Bracketology update
After going over all the information this morning, I am going to backtrack on my statements that Colorado and Michigan State are "locks." I think they are in better shape than others as right now, I think 8 bubble slots remain open for the taking. Marquette, despite losing to Louisville in the Big East quarters, has locked up the 11th bid for The Big East. Georgia could find itself on the bubble if they lose to Alabama today; however, despite whatever Joe Lunardi thinks, I believe they will be in the field no matter what on selection Sunday.
As of right now the following 8 teams are in my field, but squarely on the bubble. Clemson, Richmond, VCU, and USC are on my "last Four in" list
Colorado (Big 12 semifinals vs Kansas)
Michigan State (Big Ten quarters vs Purdue)
Michigan (Big Ten quarters vs Illinois)
Virginia Tech (ACC quarters vs Florida State)
Clemson (ACC quarters vs Boston College)
Richmond (A-10 quarters vs Rhode Island)
VCU (lost to Old Dominion in CAA Finals)
USC (Pac 10 semifinals vs Oregon)
As you can see, 7 of the 8 teams in my list have games today. USC lost the most yesterday when Oregon eliminated UCLA in the Pac 10 quarterfinals, as they now have one less quality opponent they can beat. USC is 6-5 vs the top 50 RPI but have 6 losses against teams ranked with RPI's of 100+. I don't think USC can survive a loss today. Although I have them in today, I think they will need to get to the Pac 10 tournament to secure a bid.
I do think Colorado and Michigan State can afford losses today and still get in. Clemson vs Boston College is a classic bubble game. The winner is on the bubble, the loser is probably off. Richmond cannot afford a bad loss to Rhode Island today and may need to reach the A-10 finals to be safe. VCU is in a tough position. They have 3 top 50 RPI wins an additional 5 wins from RPI's 51-100. But their season is over, and they can no longer impress the committee.
ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN.
Alabama (SEC quarters vs Georgia)
Alabama needs a win over Georgia today to get back in the conversation. Their 12 SEC wins sound impressive, but it looks very unimpressive on paper.
Boston College (ACC quarters vs Clemson)
As mentioned above, they can get right back on the bubble by beating Boston College.
Penn State (Big Ten quarters vs Wisconsin)
The Nittany Lions could desperately use a second win over Wisconsin today to get in the conversation.
Saint Marys (lost to Gonzaga in WCC finals)
The Gaels had a nice year. Their lone top 50 RPI win was a season opening win versus Saint Johns and they haven't done much since. Like VCU, there is nothing more they can do, but VCU did more than them this year
Memphis (C-USA semis vs East Carolina)
All of the 4 top 50 RPI wins for Memphis came within the conference and their best nonn conference win was against Miami (RPI 68). Memphis is better off winning the C-USA auto bid at this point and can with two more wins.
New Mexico (MWC semis vs BYU)
New Mexico is not an at-large candidate, but they would steal a bid. They already beat BYU twice this year. Three times is not out of the question)
Utah State (WAC vs San Jose State)
Despite a high RPI, Utah State is no lock for an at-large. They can't afford to slip up in the conference tourney like they did last year.
No Longer Under Consideration
UAB
Colorado State
Baylor
California
Washington State
Nebraska
Harvard/Princeton loser
Ole Miss
Oklahoma State
If you don't see your team mentioned on here, and they are lucky enough to still be playing, you better hope they get an automatic bid.
As of right now the following 8 teams are in my field, but squarely on the bubble. Clemson, Richmond, VCU, and USC are on my "last Four in" list
Colorado (Big 12 semifinals vs Kansas)
Michigan State (Big Ten quarters vs Purdue)
Michigan (Big Ten quarters vs Illinois)
Virginia Tech (ACC quarters vs Florida State)
Clemson (ACC quarters vs Boston College)
Richmond (A-10 quarters vs Rhode Island)
VCU (lost to Old Dominion in CAA Finals)
USC (Pac 10 semifinals vs Oregon)
As you can see, 7 of the 8 teams in my list have games today. USC lost the most yesterday when Oregon eliminated UCLA in the Pac 10 quarterfinals, as they now have one less quality opponent they can beat. USC is 6-5 vs the top 50 RPI but have 6 losses against teams ranked with RPI's of 100+. I don't think USC can survive a loss today. Although I have them in today, I think they will need to get to the Pac 10 tournament to secure a bid.
I do think Colorado and Michigan State can afford losses today and still get in. Clemson vs Boston College is a classic bubble game. The winner is on the bubble, the loser is probably off. Richmond cannot afford a bad loss to Rhode Island today and may need to reach the A-10 finals to be safe. VCU is in a tough position. They have 3 top 50 RPI wins an additional 5 wins from RPI's 51-100. But their season is over, and they can no longer impress the committee.
ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN.
Alabama (SEC quarters vs Georgia)
Alabama needs a win over Georgia today to get back in the conversation. Their 12 SEC wins sound impressive, but it looks very unimpressive on paper.
Boston College (ACC quarters vs Clemson)
As mentioned above, they can get right back on the bubble by beating Boston College.
Penn State (Big Ten quarters vs Wisconsin)
The Nittany Lions could desperately use a second win over Wisconsin today to get in the conversation.
Saint Marys (lost to Gonzaga in WCC finals)
The Gaels had a nice year. Their lone top 50 RPI win was a season opening win versus Saint Johns and they haven't done much since. Like VCU, there is nothing more they can do, but VCU did more than them this year
Memphis (C-USA semis vs East Carolina)
All of the 4 top 50 RPI wins for Memphis came within the conference and their best nonn conference win was against Miami (RPI 68). Memphis is better off winning the C-USA auto bid at this point and can with two more wins.
New Mexico (MWC semis vs BYU)
New Mexico is not an at-large candidate, but they would steal a bid. They already beat BYU twice this year. Three times is not out of the question)
Utah State (WAC vs San Jose State)
Despite a high RPI, Utah State is no lock for an at-large. They can't afford to slip up in the conference tourney like they did last year.
No Longer Under Consideration
UAB
Colorado State
Baylor
California
Washington State
Nebraska
Harvard/Princeton loser
Ole Miss
Oklahoma State
If you don't see your team mentioned on here, and they are lucky enough to still be playing, you better hope they get an automatic bid.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Bracketology update
For some reason Joe Lunardi thinks Saint Mary's with their 1 top 50 RPI win is in, while Georgia, with a much better resume (including 3 top 50 RPI wins) is out. Whatever Joe.
The field of 68, as of Monday Night (all games concluded)
Big East (11)
Big Ten (6)
ACC (6)
Big Twelve (5)
SEC (6)
Pac Ten (3)
A-10 (3)
Mountain West (3)
Colonial (2)
Horizon (2)
21 One Bid Leagues
The field of 68, as of Monday Night (all games concluded)
Big East (11)
Big Ten (6)
ACC (6)
Big Twelve (5)
SEC (6)
Pac Ten (3)
A-10 (3)
Mountain West (3)
Colonial (2)
Horizon (2)
21 One Bid Leagues
Games to Watch: March 8th, 2011
The Big East Tournament kicks off tomorrow in New York City and there is one big game in terms of bubble implications. Marquette (18-13, 9-9), enters the game squarely on the bubble and cannot afford a first round loss against Providence (15-16, 4-14). That game tips off at approximately 8:00p.m. Central on ESPN U. Should Marquette prevail, they will move on to face West Virginia on Wednesday night.
The Horizon League Championship tomorrow features Butler (22-9, 13-5) vs Milwaukee (19-12, 13-5). Right now, Butler has the profile of a bubble team but can avoid sweating out Selection Sunday with a win. Milwaukee has zero chance at an at-large bid and will need the win to secure a bid. Action kicks off at 8:00p.m. on ESPN.
The Horizon League Championship tomorrow features Butler (22-9, 13-5) vs Milwaukee (19-12, 13-5). Right now, Butler has the profile of a bubble team but can avoid sweating out Selection Sunday with a win. Milwaukee has zero chance at an at-large bid and will need the win to secure a bid. Action kicks off at 8:00p.m. on ESPN.
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