Pac 10 Hoops: What happened this year????

Life on the bubble is especially tough and a gut wrenching experience for many teams, especially during Championship week. Year after year, teams that normally would not qualify for the NCAA Tournament win their conference tournament and steal a bid from maybe a more deserving team. This year, bubble teams will have to focus on one conference tournament in particular, and its not a conference that Butler or Gonzaga is a member (although keep an eye on those as well). This year, the Pac 10 conference is in a position where they may only get one bid, the winner of its conference tournament.

Now, most bracketologists have slotted California as having that bid, and it is with good reason, as on paper, California has an RPI of 26 and a schedule ranked 3rd toughest in the country, according to realtimerpi. Usually a team in a power conference with these credentials is automatically included in the NCAA Tournament. However, taking a closer look at California (15-8, 7-4 in the Pac 10), shows that the Golden Bears are no lock for the big dance, even if they do not win the Pac 10 tournament.

Looking at California’s schedule shows that they have played four non-conference games against teams ranked 10th or higher in the RPI. California won none of these games and lost each of them by an average of 12.75 points. Their most impressive non-conference win was a 75-70 victory over Murray State (90th RPI) and their best wins in terms of RPI purposes was a 78-70 road victory over Arizona State (76th RPI) and a 67-59 home win over USC (80th RPI). Keep in mind that although California leads the Pac 10 with a 7-4 conference record, the difference between first and last place is just 2.5 games. The good news for California is that out of their last seven games, the four toughest will be at home. One can assume that should Cal finish 12-6 in the Pac 10 and have a decent showing in the conference tournament, finish with an RPI in the 30’s, then they will get a bid; however, that remains to be seen. California has no top 50 RPI wins and at most has an opportunity to pick up two or three more top 100 RPI wins.

Ultimately, the bracketologist in me does not see another team from the Pac 10 dancing in March if California wins the Pac 10 tournament. At that point, California’s tourney fate will be in the hands of the NCAA Tournament committee.

Other conference tournaments to watch should the league favorite lose and fall to at-large status. Bubble teams will want to root for these guys. I am not ready to slide a team from the Colonial Athletic conference in here as they have no clear leader and several teams with RPI’s from 35 to 54. I believe the first three teams are clear locks should they continue at their current pace all the way to their conference tournaments and that UAB and Siena are approaching lock status.

Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa)
Horizon (Butler)
West Coast (Gonzaga)
Conference USA (UAB)
Metro Atlantic Athletic (Siena)