Bracketology 101-Sunday Morning Update

Bracketology 101 Update-Sunday Morning, March 7, 2010

Nobody was a bigger winner in the bubble race yesterday than the Louisville Cardinal, who closed down Freedom Hall by defeating #1 Syracuse 78-68. At the beginning of the day, Kyle Kuric, little known in College Basketball, was a Twitter Trending Topic after delivering a 22 point performance on 9-11 shooting. Now, Louisville does a fairly good paper resume. They have a record of 20-11 (11-7 in conference) with an RPI of 30 and Strength of Schedule (SOS) rating at 4. However, there is that glowing record of 2-8 versus the Top 50 RPI (both against Syracuse) and an under .500 record against top 100 RPI teams (8-10). Now, in the year of a very weak bubble, Louisville is probably in, considering going into today there are some fish hacks out there who think Notre Dame deserve a bid. As of now, I won’t call Louisville a “lock” as stranger things of happen, but they would be on the right side of the bubble, and probably near the top of the list if the season ended today.

Forgive me if I am missing something here, but what in the world is the love of affair with Marquette? I fail to see how they are a “lock” at this point to make the NCAA Tournament. Now, if the field was selected today, I would probably give Marquette a bid. Similar to Louisville, they have an overall record of 20-10, and a conference record of 11-7. The also boast a 4-8 record against top 50 RPI teams and an 8-8 record against top 100 RPI teams. That is good enough to finish in a tie for 5th in the Big East conference. In a year that The Big East is considered to be the greatest conference in college basketball, it would be hard to believe that any team with a winning record in conference would be left out. However, the average RPI rank of a team Marquette beat in conference is 88. The average RPI rank of a team that beat Marquette in conference is 43. If you take out Marquette’s loss to DePaul, the average RPI rank of a team that beat them is 15 (Marquette did beat Georgetown (14) at home in January. Their marquee non-conference win came against Xavier on a neutral court and they played several teams with RPI’s in the 300. Should Marquette make the field, and one win in The Big East Tournament should solidify that, I will not be picking them to go very far in the tournament.

Congrats to the following teams who picked up automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament on Friday and Saturday. The fourth team listed below is not one that someone seeded between 3 and 5 is going to want to see as their opponent in two weeks.

East Tennessee St (Atlantic Sun)
Winthrop (Big South)
Cornell (Ivy League)
Murray State (Ohio Valley)

TODAY’S GAMES TO FOLLOW

Missouri Valley Conference Championship (1p.m. Central, CBS)

Top seeded Northern Iowa, who has earned an at-large bid regardless to the NCAA Tournament will take on 2nd seeded Wichita State for the league tourney title. Wichita State has been attempting to build up its own resume as of late, but a Bracket Buster Saturday loss to Utah State hurt Wichita State severely in their attempt. A win over Northern Iowa gets them the auto-bid, but I just do not think they have done enough to warrant an at-large status. Bubble teams will closely be watching this game today and hoping Northern Iowa takes care of the job. The two teams have met twice this year with Northern Iowa winning 59-56 on their home court and Wichita State winning 60-51 on their home court.

#17 Wisconsin at Illinois (1p.m. Central, ESPN)

Despite having an RPI in the 70’s, and an overall record of 18-12, the Illinois Fighting Illini is still in line to get an at-large berth. A win over a top 25 RPI will go a long way to helping Illinois but it won’t guarantee them a bid. A loss may require Illinois to win at least three games in the Big Ten tournament to get themselves back in the conversation.

Tonight’s Update will include a new updated look at the field and my first “Last Four in” and “Last Four Out” projections