Monday, February 28, 2011

February 28/March 2 Bracketology Update

With less than 2 weeks until Selection Sunday, here is my Bracketology breakdown. I am not gonna do a major blog post this week, but I will have many thoughts on the field this coming Thursday at 9pm central on Stucknut Radio (visit www.stucknut.com for more details), as I join Boatie in Pearland to discuss the field.

Conference Breakdown-

Big East (11)-Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Saint Johns, Syracuse, Georgetown, UCONN, West Virginia, Villanova, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Twelve (6)-Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado
Big Ten (5)-Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
ACC (6)-Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Va Tech, Clemson, Boston College
SEC (4)-Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia
Mountain West (4)-BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic Ten (3)-Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Horizon (2)-Cleveland State, Butler
CAA (2)-George Mason, Old Dominion
WCC (2)-Saint Marys, Gonzaga

20 one bid leagues

Last Four in: Colorado State, Richmond, Butler, Boston College
First Four Out: Colorado, Baylor, Alabama, Memphis

Still under consideration: Colorado, Southern Miss, Michigan, Dayton, Drexel, Virginia Commonwealth, Mississippi, Washington State, Maryland, Nebraska

Monday, February 21, 2011

February 21, 2011 Bracketology Update

Conference Breakdown

Big East (11)
Big Ten (6)
Big Twelve (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Pac 10 (3)
Atlantic Ten (3)
Horizon (2)
CAA (2)

On my right you will find my latest projection for the field of 68. As of right now, I have 13 teams on the bubble, but I would say that Washington, Illinois, Michigan State, and Florida State are closer to the "should be in" category than the bubble. The rest of the list could easily fall off the bubble with a loss; however, to be truthful, the bubble is pretty weak right now and there is still a lot of room out there for teams that are not even listed amongst the first four out (such as Nebraska) to make an impression and get an at-large bid.

One thing that the committee may have to take into consideration are some of the teams from those "one-bid leagues" that may lose their conference tournament and enter at-large consideration. I firmly believe that George Mason and Old Dominion would get at-large bids out of the Colonial should one of those teams fail to win that conference tournament. But, lets go over the profiles of some teams that I have not had to evaluate yet, but may have to in the future.

Utah State (24-3, 12-1 in Conference)
Conference: Western Athletic
RPI: 19
SOS: 106
Top 50 RPI record: 1-2
Top 100 RPI record: 1-2
Bad Losses: at Idaho RPI 156

The Aggies went on the road early this season for games at BYU and Georgetown; however, came out 6 point losers in Provo and 17 point losers in D.C. The only other game of significance was Saturday's Bracketbuster game at Saint Mary's where the Aggies came out with a 10 point win. Last year Utah State failed to win the WAC tourney; however, they had 13 games within the top 100 RPI and had a 9-4 record. Right now, I fail to see even with an RPI of 19 how Utah State gets an at-large bid; however, it could be a long 24 hours for Utah St and other bubble teams if Utah State does not secure that autobid.

Saint Mary's (20-6, 10-2 in conference)
Conference: West Coast Conference
RPI: 46
SOS: 126
Top 50 RPI record: 1-4
Top 100 RPI Record: 2-5

The Gaels opened the year with a win over Saint Johns but it remains their only top 50 RPI win of the year. Losing to Utah State but a real dagger in the at-large chances of Saint Marys. I could maybe see Saint Marys getting an at-large bid if they finish off the regular season with wins over Gonzaga and Portland and reaching the WCC title game. However, should the Gaels defeat Portland, it will probably send Portland out of the top 100 RPI, negating that win, and also, giving the Gaels a loss outside the top 100 RPI (Portland on January 29th). Gonzaga, with 13 games inside the top 100 RPI (6-7 record) probably has a better at-large resume for the WCC, despite their lower RPI (71)

Memphis (20-7, 8-4 conference)
Conference: Conference USA
RPI: 35
SOS: 40
Top 50 RPI Record: 4-3
Top 100 RPI Record: 9-5

There are still a couple C-USA teams considered on the bubble at the moment; however, right now I would probably have Memphis in the "should be in" category, so if memphis doesn't do anything disastrous on the way towards the Conference USA tournament, they should still be OK come Selection Sunday if they don't win the league tourney championship.

Horizon League Breakdown

The Horizon league is kind of interesting. Right now, Cleveland State is winning the conference with a 12-4 record and a 21-6 record overall. They have an RPI of 35 and a SOS of 108. The problem for them is that they are only 1-5 against the top 50 RPI while their conference counterpart Butler is 4-4 against the top 50 RPI. Now, Butler does have 4 losses against teams with RPI's over 100 while Cleveland State only has 1. For now, both have bids, but I would hate to be either of these teams if they do not win the Horizon League Tournament.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Bracketology Update: February 15, 2011

George Mason 71 VCU 51

George Mason took a big step towards securing an at-large bid with a 20 point road win at Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) tonight. VCU has now lost 3 of their last 5 games and have just a 2-3 record against top 50 RPI teams. VCU also has 3 losses against teams with RPI's of 100 or higher including a loss at Georgia State (RPI 217). Although RPI is not the final indicator of whether a team makes the tournament or not, VCU's RPI was 61 coming into tonight and will surely fall with this most recent loss. VCU travels to Wichita State for Bracketbusters this Saturday and will certainly need to win that game to have any at-large possibilities left.

Virginia Tech 91 Maryland 83

A loss tonight for Virginia Tech at home would have done a lot more damage, but getting this win propels Virginia Tech to 17-7 overall and 7-4 in ACC play. The Hokies are a mere 1-5 against teams ranked in the top 50 RPI, but they do host top 50 RPI teams Duke and Boston College in the coming weeks prior to the ACC Tournament.

Ohio State 71 Michigan State 61

A loss on the road for Michigan State drops them to 13-11 overall and 6-7 in the Big Ten but does not end the hopes of the Spartans to make the tournament. They host Top 50 RPI Illinois on Saturday and play at two other top 50 RPI teams next week in at Minnesota and home to Purdue. 2 wins would get Sparty to 8-8 in the conference and improving upon that 3-8 top 50 RPI record.

Butler 64 Green Bay 62

Butler survives a road scare at Green Bay and improves to 19-9 overall and 11-5 in the Horizon league. The Bulldogs have a 4-4 record against top 50 RPI teams. A loss tonight would have marked a sixth loss for Butler outside of the top 100 RPI teams and seriously damaged the hopes of them getting an at-large bids. Butler has two remaining games with teams with RPI's in the 200s and will likely need to win The Horizon League Tournament to get back to the NCAA Tournament that they were oh so close to winning last April.

Saint Johns 80 Marquette 68

Saint Johns improves to 16-9 overall and 8-5 in a tough Big East conference with an 80-68 road win tonight. Marquette falls to 15-11 and 6-7 in the Big East with this loss at home. Marquette falls to 3-10 against top 50 RPI teams (that's insane by the way, 13 teams?) with an 0-3 record against top 50 RPI teams in the non conference (Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt). In addition, Marquette lost to Gonzaga (RPI 72) and has zero wins out of the conference in the top 100. They aren't eliminated from at-large consideration by any means, but the margin for error is becoming slim.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Bracketology Projection #2

Bracketology Volume 2.3

Please make sure to check the breakdown on the right which will give you a better idea of how I am breaking the field down. If you have a question, please twitter it @JoeinBugaha

In addition to 21 one-bid leagues, the following teams are in my field.

Big East (11)-Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UCONN, Saint Johns, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Ten (6)-Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan St
Big 12 (7)-Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas St
SEC (5)-Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia
ACC (4)-Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College
MWC (4)-BYU, San Diego St, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3)-Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Conf USA (2)-UTEP, Memphis
Colonial (2)-Old Dominion, George Mason

Last Four In (No order)

Michigan State, Kansas State, Baylor, Colorado State

First Four Out (No Order)

UAB, Butler, Virginia Tech, VCU

Next Four Out (No Order)

Cleveland State, Wichita State, Harvard, Ole Miss)

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Bracketology Projection #1

Bracketology Volume 2.2

First Look at the Potential Field

We are about 33 days from Selection Sunday, but that does not mean it is too early to start projecting the field of 68 for this year’s Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament (hell, Joe Lunardi was projecting a bracket before the season started). This year the field will come from 31 automatic bids from the winner’s of the conference tournaments and 37 at-large selections. Before giving my first field, let’s breakdown the field first to give you an idea just how many at-large berths are up for grabs right now. Please note that the field is updated for games through Sunday February 6th. I pick the field using criteria including but not limited to: Overall record, Conference Record, RPI, Strength of Schedule, Top 50 RPI Record, Top 100 RPI Record, and Bad Losses (Sub 100 RPI team losses)

The One Bid Leagues (17)

The following are conferences with their current conference leader. More than likely, these conferences will only receive one bid, the winner of the conference tournament. Should the conference leader not win their conference tournament, they will receive a bid to the NIT.

Vermont (American East)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Coastal Carolina (Big South)
Long Beach St (Big West)
Princeton (Ivy)
Fairfield (MAAC)
Kent St (MAC)
Hampton (MEAC)
Long Island (Northeast)
Murray St (Ohio Valley)
Bucknell (Patriot League)
Chattanooga (Southern)
McNeese St (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Oakland (Summit)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)

Potential Two Bid Leagues (7)

The following are conferences that could receive multiple bids if the conference champion fails to win their conference tournament. For now, I will project the following teams will win their own conference tournament and will not have to value them for at-large purposes.

Xavier (Atlantic 10)
VCU (Colonial)
UTEP (Conference USA)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
Saint Marys (West Coast)
Utah State (WAC)

Definite Multiple Bid Leagues

That leaves these seven conferences with multiple bid leagues.

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Mountain West
Pacific 10
SEC

The definite locks, which include conference champions below (26)

The following are teams who I believe are definite locks to make the NCAA Tournament should the field be selected today.

ACC (Duke, North Carolina)
Big 12 (Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M)
Big East (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UCONN, West Virginia, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville)
Big Ten (Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota)
Mountain West (BYU, San Diego St)
Pacific 10 (Arizona)
SEC (Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee)

Should Be In (5)

Atlantic 10 (Temple)
Big East (Saint Johns, Cincinatti)
Mountain West (UNLV)
SEC (Georgia)

The Bubble (13)

So, if we take out seven spots for conference champions above, we have already secured 54 bids, leaving 14 left to fill the field of 68. Based on the criteria above, I have included the following teams

The First Nine

ACC (Boston College, Florida State)
Big East (Marquette)
Big 12 (Oklahoma State)
Colonial (George Mason, Old Dominion)
Pac 10 (UCLA, Washington)
SEC (Mississippi)

Last Four In (A weak bubble right now)

ACC (Virginia Tech)
Missouri Valley (Missouri State)
Mountain West (Colorado State)
Memphis (Conference USA)

First Four Out
Kansas State, Butler, UAB, Michigan State


Breakdown by Conference

Big East (11)-Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UCONN, West Virginia, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Saint Johns, Cincinnati, Marquette
SEC (6)- Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi
Big 12 (5)- Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Big 10 (5)- Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
ACC (5)- Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4)-BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Colonial (3)-VCU, George Mason, Old Dominion
Conference USA (2)-UTEP, Memphis
Atlantic 10 (2)-Xavier, Temple
Missouri Valley (2)-Wichita State, Missouri State

One Bid Conferences (20)

Vermont (American East)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Coastal Carolina (Big South)
Long Beach St (Big West)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Princeton (Ivy)
Fairfield (MAAC)
Kent St (MAC)
Hampton (MEAC)
Long Island (Northeast)
Murray St (Ohio Valley)
Bucknell (Patriot League)
Chattanooga (Southern)
McNeese St (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Oakland (Summit)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
Saint Marys (West Coast)
Utah State (WAC)