I can't make an actual bracket, but this is close enough. A couple things to keep in mind when making out this field.
First, no member of a conference should meet another member of the same conference until the Elite Eight; however, in the case of the Big East, they have 11 teams, so that is impossible to avoid. Therefore, it is permissible for Big East members to meet in the sweet 16, and I used the other criteria for the remaining conferences.
Second, no rematches in the first round for the regular season. I initially had Xavier playing Georgia so I had to change that.
In order, I rank the #1 seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame. If all one seeds make the final four, then Ohio State would play Notre Dame, and Kansas would play Pittsburgh.
East
1 Ohio State
16 UCSB/Alabama St
8 George Mason
9 Richmond
5 Texas A&M
12 Memphis
4 Louisville
13 Bucknell
6 Cincinnati
11 Florida State
3 Florida
14 Morehead St
7 Xavier
10 Michigan
2 San Diego State
15 Northern Colorado
Southwest
1 Kansas
16 UALR/UTSA
8 Villanova
9 Michigan State
5 Arizona
12 Utah State
4 BYU
13 Oakland
6 Kansas State
11 Georgia
3 Syracuse
14 Saint Peters
7 UNLV
10 Penn State
2 North Carolina
15 Boston
Southeast
1 Pittsburgh
16 UNC-Ashville
8 Temple
9 Missouri
5 West Virginia
12 USC/Va Tech
4 Purdue
13 Princeton
6 Vanderbilt
11 Illinois
3 Texas
14 Indiana State
7 Old Dominion
10 Gonzaga
2 UCONN
15 Akron
West
1 Notre Dame
16 Hampton
8 UCLA
9 Tennessee
5 Saint Johns
12 Clemson/VCU
4 Wisconsin
13 Belmont
6 Georgetown
11 Butler
3 Kentucky
14 Long Island
7 Washington
10 Marquette
2 Duke
15 Wofford
Big East-11
Big Ten-7
ACC-5
Big 12-5
SEC-5
Pac 10-4
MWC-3
CAA-3
Atlantic 10-3
22 One Bid Leagues
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Bracketology: Bubble Chaos
Yesterday I thought was a day that some bubble teams would separate themselves from the pack. Turns out it was the other way around as Clemson, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Richmond, and Alabama all won games. To make things worse, presumed bubble safety teams such as Illinois, Florida State and Georgia, lost.
To make things worse, as I type this UTEP is hosting the C-USA tournament and has an early 9-0 lead on Memphis (another bubble team).
So how does one sort this out today? Well, at this point, I say let the games play out and figure it out tomorrow. I will say that I do believe Michigan State has a bid, and Illinois, Georgia, and Florida State will still make the field (although that could change).
With Penn State's win, i will put them in the field and take out USC, who lost in the Pac 10 Semifinals last night to Arizona.
To make things worse, as I type this UTEP is hosting the C-USA tournament and has an early 9-0 lead on Memphis (another bubble team).
So how does one sort this out today? Well, at this point, I say let the games play out and figure it out tomorrow. I will say that I do believe Michigan State has a bid, and Illinois, Georgia, and Florida State will still make the field (although that could change).
With Penn State's win, i will put them in the field and take out USC, who lost in the Pac 10 Semifinals last night to Arizona.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Friday, March 10th, Bracketology update
After going over all the information this morning, I am going to backtrack on my statements that Colorado and Michigan State are "locks." I think they are in better shape than others as right now, I think 8 bubble slots remain open for the taking. Marquette, despite losing to Louisville in the Big East quarters, has locked up the 11th bid for The Big East. Georgia could find itself on the bubble if they lose to Alabama today; however, despite whatever Joe Lunardi thinks, I believe they will be in the field no matter what on selection Sunday.
As of right now the following 8 teams are in my field, but squarely on the bubble. Clemson, Richmond, VCU, and USC are on my "last Four in" list
Colorado (Big 12 semifinals vs Kansas)
Michigan State (Big Ten quarters vs Purdue)
Michigan (Big Ten quarters vs Illinois)
Virginia Tech (ACC quarters vs Florida State)
Clemson (ACC quarters vs Boston College)
Richmond (A-10 quarters vs Rhode Island)
VCU (lost to Old Dominion in CAA Finals)
USC (Pac 10 semifinals vs Oregon)
As you can see, 7 of the 8 teams in my list have games today. USC lost the most yesterday when Oregon eliminated UCLA in the Pac 10 quarterfinals, as they now have one less quality opponent they can beat. USC is 6-5 vs the top 50 RPI but have 6 losses against teams ranked with RPI's of 100+. I don't think USC can survive a loss today. Although I have them in today, I think they will need to get to the Pac 10 tournament to secure a bid.
I do think Colorado and Michigan State can afford losses today and still get in. Clemson vs Boston College is a classic bubble game. The winner is on the bubble, the loser is probably off. Richmond cannot afford a bad loss to Rhode Island today and may need to reach the A-10 finals to be safe. VCU is in a tough position. They have 3 top 50 RPI wins an additional 5 wins from RPI's 51-100. But their season is over, and they can no longer impress the committee.
ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN.
Alabama (SEC quarters vs Georgia)
Alabama needs a win over Georgia today to get back in the conversation. Their 12 SEC wins sound impressive, but it looks very unimpressive on paper.
Boston College (ACC quarters vs Clemson)
As mentioned above, they can get right back on the bubble by beating Boston College.
Penn State (Big Ten quarters vs Wisconsin)
The Nittany Lions could desperately use a second win over Wisconsin today to get in the conversation.
Saint Marys (lost to Gonzaga in WCC finals)
The Gaels had a nice year. Their lone top 50 RPI win was a season opening win versus Saint Johns and they haven't done much since. Like VCU, there is nothing more they can do, but VCU did more than them this year
Memphis (C-USA semis vs East Carolina)
All of the 4 top 50 RPI wins for Memphis came within the conference and their best nonn conference win was against Miami (RPI 68). Memphis is better off winning the C-USA auto bid at this point and can with two more wins.
New Mexico (MWC semis vs BYU)
New Mexico is not an at-large candidate, but they would steal a bid. They already beat BYU twice this year. Three times is not out of the question)
Utah State (WAC vs San Jose State)
Despite a high RPI, Utah State is no lock for an at-large. They can't afford to slip up in the conference tourney like they did last year.
No Longer Under Consideration
UAB
Colorado State
Baylor
California
Washington State
Nebraska
Harvard/Princeton loser
Ole Miss
Oklahoma State
If you don't see your team mentioned on here, and they are lucky enough to still be playing, you better hope they get an automatic bid.
As of right now the following 8 teams are in my field, but squarely on the bubble. Clemson, Richmond, VCU, and USC are on my "last Four in" list
Colorado (Big 12 semifinals vs Kansas)
Michigan State (Big Ten quarters vs Purdue)
Michigan (Big Ten quarters vs Illinois)
Virginia Tech (ACC quarters vs Florida State)
Clemson (ACC quarters vs Boston College)
Richmond (A-10 quarters vs Rhode Island)
VCU (lost to Old Dominion in CAA Finals)
USC (Pac 10 semifinals vs Oregon)
As you can see, 7 of the 8 teams in my list have games today. USC lost the most yesterday when Oregon eliminated UCLA in the Pac 10 quarterfinals, as they now have one less quality opponent they can beat. USC is 6-5 vs the top 50 RPI but have 6 losses against teams ranked with RPI's of 100+. I don't think USC can survive a loss today. Although I have them in today, I think they will need to get to the Pac 10 tournament to secure a bid.
I do think Colorado and Michigan State can afford losses today and still get in. Clemson vs Boston College is a classic bubble game. The winner is on the bubble, the loser is probably off. Richmond cannot afford a bad loss to Rhode Island today and may need to reach the A-10 finals to be safe. VCU is in a tough position. They have 3 top 50 RPI wins an additional 5 wins from RPI's 51-100. But their season is over, and they can no longer impress the committee.
ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN.
Alabama (SEC quarters vs Georgia)
Alabama needs a win over Georgia today to get back in the conversation. Their 12 SEC wins sound impressive, but it looks very unimpressive on paper.
Boston College (ACC quarters vs Clemson)
As mentioned above, they can get right back on the bubble by beating Boston College.
Penn State (Big Ten quarters vs Wisconsin)
The Nittany Lions could desperately use a second win over Wisconsin today to get in the conversation.
Saint Marys (lost to Gonzaga in WCC finals)
The Gaels had a nice year. Their lone top 50 RPI win was a season opening win versus Saint Johns and they haven't done much since. Like VCU, there is nothing more they can do, but VCU did more than them this year
Memphis (C-USA semis vs East Carolina)
All of the 4 top 50 RPI wins for Memphis came within the conference and their best nonn conference win was against Miami (RPI 68). Memphis is better off winning the C-USA auto bid at this point and can with two more wins.
New Mexico (MWC semis vs BYU)
New Mexico is not an at-large candidate, but they would steal a bid. They already beat BYU twice this year. Three times is not out of the question)
Utah State (WAC vs San Jose State)
Despite a high RPI, Utah State is no lock for an at-large. They can't afford to slip up in the conference tourney like they did last year.
No Longer Under Consideration
UAB
Colorado State
Baylor
California
Washington State
Nebraska
Harvard/Princeton loser
Ole Miss
Oklahoma State
If you don't see your team mentioned on here, and they are lucky enough to still be playing, you better hope they get an automatic bid.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Bracketology update
For some reason Joe Lunardi thinks Saint Mary's with their 1 top 50 RPI win is in, while Georgia, with a much better resume (including 3 top 50 RPI wins) is out. Whatever Joe.
The field of 68, as of Monday Night (all games concluded)
Big East (11)
Big Ten (6)
ACC (6)
Big Twelve (5)
SEC (6)
Pac Ten (3)
A-10 (3)
Mountain West (3)
Colonial (2)
Horizon (2)
21 One Bid Leagues
The field of 68, as of Monday Night (all games concluded)
Big East (11)
Big Ten (6)
ACC (6)
Big Twelve (5)
SEC (6)
Pac Ten (3)
A-10 (3)
Mountain West (3)
Colonial (2)
Horizon (2)
21 One Bid Leagues
Games to Watch: March 8th, 2011
The Big East Tournament kicks off tomorrow in New York City and there is one big game in terms of bubble implications. Marquette (18-13, 9-9), enters the game squarely on the bubble and cannot afford a first round loss against Providence (15-16, 4-14). That game tips off at approximately 8:00p.m. Central on ESPN U. Should Marquette prevail, they will move on to face West Virginia on Wednesday night.
The Horizon League Championship tomorrow features Butler (22-9, 13-5) vs Milwaukee (19-12, 13-5). Right now, Butler has the profile of a bubble team but can avoid sweating out Selection Sunday with a win. Milwaukee has zero chance at an at-large bid and will need the win to secure a bid. Action kicks off at 8:00p.m. on ESPN.
The Horizon League Championship tomorrow features Butler (22-9, 13-5) vs Milwaukee (19-12, 13-5). Right now, Butler has the profile of a bubble team but can avoid sweating out Selection Sunday with a win. Milwaukee has zero chance at an at-large bid and will need the win to secure a bid. Action kicks off at 8:00p.m. on ESPN.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Bracketology: March 1, 2011
Coming into Tuesday night, I did not have Alabama or Baylor in my field of 68 while other sites did. Fortunately for me, Alabama and Baylor shared my sentiments about them as Alabama was hammered 78-51 on the road by Florida and Baylor lost a crucial road game to Oklahoma State 71-60.
Illinois fell to 8-9 in the Big Ten by losing a tough hard fought game at Purdue 75-67; however, they have not fallen out of the field completely. A win at home at Indiana on Saturday would get Illinois to 9-9 in the Big Ten. The Illini cannot afford to lose to Indiana on Saturday or to lose to a subpar team in the upcoming Big Ten tournament.
Missouri fell to Nebraska on the road tonight as Missouri finish their near imperfect off Big 12 road record (1-7). Overall, Missouri falls to 21-8 and 8-7 in the Big 12. Missouri will likely wind up with an RPI in the mid 30’s tomorrow morning and does hold non-conference wins over Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, and Illinois. A win at home on Saturday versus Kansas would go a long way to securing a bid; otherwise, they better avoid losing their first big 12 tournament game next Wednesday. As for Nebraska, they need to win at Colorado on Saturday to finish 8-8 in the conference and have a chance to be in the conversation come Selection Sunday.
Penn State had a big chance to make a statement to stay in the conversation tonight with a win at home against Ohio State. Instead, they got a giant beat down and fell to 15-13 on the year and 8-9 in the Big Ten. Penn State does have 3 wins over top 50 RPI teams and a top 10 SOS, so they are not completely eliminated yet in this weak bubble year.
Well, well, well. I didn’t hear Seth Greenberg on Saturday Night but I am sure he had some rant on ESPN about how his team deserved to make the tournament last year. Well. Tonight at home, after beating Duke on Saturday…….wait for it…….Virginia Tech………….got destroyed at home by Boston College 76-61. Unfortunately for Boston College, they still only have 1 top 50 RPI win and have a 7-10 record against the top 100 RPI. They do hold 2 wins over Va Tech, which could help them Selection Sunday. I did not have Boston College in the field yesterday and I am not quite ready to put them in yet. Therefore, no changes to the field as of tonight.
Illinois fell to 8-9 in the Big Ten by losing a tough hard fought game at Purdue 75-67; however, they have not fallen out of the field completely. A win at home at Indiana on Saturday would get Illinois to 9-9 in the Big Ten. The Illini cannot afford to lose to Indiana on Saturday or to lose to a subpar team in the upcoming Big Ten tournament.
Missouri fell to Nebraska on the road tonight as Missouri finish their near imperfect off Big 12 road record (1-7). Overall, Missouri falls to 21-8 and 8-7 in the Big 12. Missouri will likely wind up with an RPI in the mid 30’s tomorrow morning and does hold non-conference wins over Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, and Illinois. A win at home on Saturday versus Kansas would go a long way to securing a bid; otherwise, they better avoid losing their first big 12 tournament game next Wednesday. As for Nebraska, they need to win at Colorado on Saturday to finish 8-8 in the conference and have a chance to be in the conversation come Selection Sunday.
Penn State had a big chance to make a statement to stay in the conversation tonight with a win at home against Ohio State. Instead, they got a giant beat down and fell to 15-13 on the year and 8-9 in the Big Ten. Penn State does have 3 wins over top 50 RPI teams and a top 10 SOS, so they are not completely eliminated yet in this weak bubble year.
Well, well, well. I didn’t hear Seth Greenberg on Saturday Night but I am sure he had some rant on ESPN about how his team deserved to make the tournament last year. Well. Tonight at home, after beating Duke on Saturday…….wait for it…….Virginia Tech………….got destroyed at home by Boston College 76-61. Unfortunately for Boston College, they still only have 1 top 50 RPI win and have a 7-10 record against the top 100 RPI. They do hold 2 wins over Va Tech, which could help them Selection Sunday. I did not have Boston College in the field yesterday and I am not quite ready to put them in yet. Therefore, no changes to the field as of tonight.
Monday, February 28, 2011
February 28/March 2 Bracketology Update
With less than 2 weeks until Selection Sunday, here is my Bracketology breakdown. I am not gonna do a major blog post this week, but I will have many thoughts on the field this coming Thursday at 9pm central on Stucknut Radio (visit www.stucknut.com for more details), as I join Boatie in Pearland to discuss the field.
Conference Breakdown-
Big East (11)-Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Saint Johns, Syracuse, Georgetown, UCONN, West Virginia, Villanova, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Twelve (6)-Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado
Big Ten (5)-Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
ACC (6)-Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Va Tech, Clemson, Boston College
SEC (4)-Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia
Mountain West (4)-BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic Ten (3)-Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Horizon (2)-Cleveland State, Butler
CAA (2)-George Mason, Old Dominion
WCC (2)-Saint Marys, Gonzaga
20 one bid leagues
Last Four in: Colorado State, Richmond, Butler, Boston College
First Four Out: Colorado, Baylor, Alabama, Memphis
Still under consideration: Colorado, Southern Miss, Michigan, Dayton, Drexel, Virginia Commonwealth, Mississippi, Washington State, Maryland, Nebraska
Conference Breakdown-
Big East (11)-Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Saint Johns, Syracuse, Georgetown, UCONN, West Virginia, Villanova, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Twelve (6)-Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado
Big Ten (5)-Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
ACC (6)-Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Va Tech, Clemson, Boston College
SEC (4)-Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia
Mountain West (4)-BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic Ten (3)-Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Horizon (2)-Cleveland State, Butler
CAA (2)-George Mason, Old Dominion
WCC (2)-Saint Marys, Gonzaga
20 one bid leagues
Last Four in: Colorado State, Richmond, Butler, Boston College
First Four Out: Colorado, Baylor, Alabama, Memphis
Still under consideration: Colorado, Southern Miss, Michigan, Dayton, Drexel, Virginia Commonwealth, Mississippi, Washington State, Maryland, Nebraska
Monday, February 21, 2011
February 21, 2011 Bracketology Update
Conference Breakdown
Big East (11)
Big Ten (6)
Big Twelve (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Pac 10 (3)
Atlantic Ten (3)
Horizon (2)
CAA (2)
On my right you will find my latest projection for the field of 68. As of right now, I have 13 teams on the bubble, but I would say that Washington, Illinois, Michigan State, and Florida State are closer to the "should be in" category than the bubble. The rest of the list could easily fall off the bubble with a loss; however, to be truthful, the bubble is pretty weak right now and there is still a lot of room out there for teams that are not even listed amongst the first four out (such as Nebraska) to make an impression and get an at-large bid.
One thing that the committee may have to take into consideration are some of the teams from those "one-bid leagues" that may lose their conference tournament and enter at-large consideration. I firmly believe that George Mason and Old Dominion would get at-large bids out of the Colonial should one of those teams fail to win that conference tournament. But, lets go over the profiles of some teams that I have not had to evaluate yet, but may have to in the future.
Utah State (24-3, 12-1 in Conference)
Conference: Western Athletic
RPI: 19
SOS: 106
Top 50 RPI record: 1-2
Top 100 RPI record: 1-2
Bad Losses: at Idaho RPI 156
The Aggies went on the road early this season for games at BYU and Georgetown; however, came out 6 point losers in Provo and 17 point losers in D.C. The only other game of significance was Saturday's Bracketbuster game at Saint Mary's where the Aggies came out with a 10 point win. Last year Utah State failed to win the WAC tourney; however, they had 13 games within the top 100 RPI and had a 9-4 record. Right now, I fail to see even with an RPI of 19 how Utah State gets an at-large bid; however, it could be a long 24 hours for Utah St and other bubble teams if Utah State does not secure that autobid.
Saint Mary's (20-6, 10-2 in conference)
Conference: West Coast Conference
RPI: 46
SOS: 126
Top 50 RPI record: 1-4
Top 100 RPI Record: 2-5
The Gaels opened the year with a win over Saint Johns but it remains their only top 50 RPI win of the year. Losing to Utah State but a real dagger in the at-large chances of Saint Marys. I could maybe see Saint Marys getting an at-large bid if they finish off the regular season with wins over Gonzaga and Portland and reaching the WCC title game. However, should the Gaels defeat Portland, it will probably send Portland out of the top 100 RPI, negating that win, and also, giving the Gaels a loss outside the top 100 RPI (Portland on January 29th). Gonzaga, with 13 games inside the top 100 RPI (6-7 record) probably has a better at-large resume for the WCC, despite their lower RPI (71)
Memphis (20-7, 8-4 conference)
Conference: Conference USA
RPI: 35
SOS: 40
Top 50 RPI Record: 4-3
Top 100 RPI Record: 9-5
There are still a couple C-USA teams considered on the bubble at the moment; however, right now I would probably have Memphis in the "should be in" category, so if memphis doesn't do anything disastrous on the way towards the Conference USA tournament, they should still be OK come Selection Sunday if they don't win the league tourney championship.
Horizon League Breakdown
The Horizon league is kind of interesting. Right now, Cleveland State is winning the conference with a 12-4 record and a 21-6 record overall. They have an RPI of 35 and a SOS of 108. The problem for them is that they are only 1-5 against the top 50 RPI while their conference counterpart Butler is 4-4 against the top 50 RPI. Now, Butler does have 4 losses against teams with RPI's over 100 while Cleveland State only has 1. For now, both have bids, but I would hate to be either of these teams if they do not win the Horizon League Tournament.
Big East (11)
Big Ten (6)
Big Twelve (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Pac 10 (3)
Atlantic Ten (3)
Horizon (2)
CAA (2)
On my right you will find my latest projection for the field of 68. As of right now, I have 13 teams on the bubble, but I would say that Washington, Illinois, Michigan State, and Florida State are closer to the "should be in" category than the bubble. The rest of the list could easily fall off the bubble with a loss; however, to be truthful, the bubble is pretty weak right now and there is still a lot of room out there for teams that are not even listed amongst the first four out (such as Nebraska) to make an impression and get an at-large bid.
One thing that the committee may have to take into consideration are some of the teams from those "one-bid leagues" that may lose their conference tournament and enter at-large consideration. I firmly believe that George Mason and Old Dominion would get at-large bids out of the Colonial should one of those teams fail to win that conference tournament. But, lets go over the profiles of some teams that I have not had to evaluate yet, but may have to in the future.
Utah State (24-3, 12-1 in Conference)
Conference: Western Athletic
RPI: 19
SOS: 106
Top 50 RPI record: 1-2
Top 100 RPI record: 1-2
Bad Losses: at Idaho RPI 156
The Aggies went on the road early this season for games at BYU and Georgetown; however, came out 6 point losers in Provo and 17 point losers in D.C. The only other game of significance was Saturday's Bracketbuster game at Saint Mary's where the Aggies came out with a 10 point win. Last year Utah State failed to win the WAC tourney; however, they had 13 games within the top 100 RPI and had a 9-4 record. Right now, I fail to see even with an RPI of 19 how Utah State gets an at-large bid; however, it could be a long 24 hours for Utah St and other bubble teams if Utah State does not secure that autobid.
Saint Mary's (20-6, 10-2 in conference)
Conference: West Coast Conference
RPI: 46
SOS: 126
Top 50 RPI record: 1-4
Top 100 RPI Record: 2-5
The Gaels opened the year with a win over Saint Johns but it remains their only top 50 RPI win of the year. Losing to Utah State but a real dagger in the at-large chances of Saint Marys. I could maybe see Saint Marys getting an at-large bid if they finish off the regular season with wins over Gonzaga and Portland and reaching the WCC title game. However, should the Gaels defeat Portland, it will probably send Portland out of the top 100 RPI, negating that win, and also, giving the Gaels a loss outside the top 100 RPI (Portland on January 29th). Gonzaga, with 13 games inside the top 100 RPI (6-7 record) probably has a better at-large resume for the WCC, despite their lower RPI (71)
Memphis (20-7, 8-4 conference)
Conference: Conference USA
RPI: 35
SOS: 40
Top 50 RPI Record: 4-3
Top 100 RPI Record: 9-5
There are still a couple C-USA teams considered on the bubble at the moment; however, right now I would probably have Memphis in the "should be in" category, so if memphis doesn't do anything disastrous on the way towards the Conference USA tournament, they should still be OK come Selection Sunday if they don't win the league tourney championship.
Horizon League Breakdown
The Horizon league is kind of interesting. Right now, Cleveland State is winning the conference with a 12-4 record and a 21-6 record overall. They have an RPI of 35 and a SOS of 108. The problem for them is that they are only 1-5 against the top 50 RPI while their conference counterpart Butler is 4-4 against the top 50 RPI. Now, Butler does have 4 losses against teams with RPI's over 100 while Cleveland State only has 1. For now, both have bids, but I would hate to be either of these teams if they do not win the Horizon League Tournament.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Bracketology Update: February 15, 2011
George Mason 71 VCU 51
George Mason took a big step towards securing an at-large bid with a 20 point road win at Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) tonight. VCU has now lost 3 of their last 5 games and have just a 2-3 record against top 50 RPI teams. VCU also has 3 losses against teams with RPI's of 100 or higher including a loss at Georgia State (RPI 217). Although RPI is not the final indicator of whether a team makes the tournament or not, VCU's RPI was 61 coming into tonight and will surely fall with this most recent loss. VCU travels to Wichita State for Bracketbusters this Saturday and will certainly need to win that game to have any at-large possibilities left.
Virginia Tech 91 Maryland 83
A loss tonight for Virginia Tech at home would have done a lot more damage, but getting this win propels Virginia Tech to 17-7 overall and 7-4 in ACC play. The Hokies are a mere 1-5 against teams ranked in the top 50 RPI, but they do host top 50 RPI teams Duke and Boston College in the coming weeks prior to the ACC Tournament.
Ohio State 71 Michigan State 61
A loss on the road for Michigan State drops them to 13-11 overall and 6-7 in the Big Ten but does not end the hopes of the Spartans to make the tournament. They host Top 50 RPI Illinois on Saturday and play at two other top 50 RPI teams next week in at Minnesota and home to Purdue. 2 wins would get Sparty to 8-8 in the conference and improving upon that 3-8 top 50 RPI record.
Butler 64 Green Bay 62
Butler survives a road scare at Green Bay and improves to 19-9 overall and 11-5 in the Horizon league. The Bulldogs have a 4-4 record against top 50 RPI teams. A loss tonight would have marked a sixth loss for Butler outside of the top 100 RPI teams and seriously damaged the hopes of them getting an at-large bids. Butler has two remaining games with teams with RPI's in the 200s and will likely need to win The Horizon League Tournament to get back to the NCAA Tournament that they were oh so close to winning last April.
Saint Johns 80 Marquette 68
Saint Johns improves to 16-9 overall and 8-5 in a tough Big East conference with an 80-68 road win tonight. Marquette falls to 15-11 and 6-7 in the Big East with this loss at home. Marquette falls to 3-10 against top 50 RPI teams (that's insane by the way, 13 teams?) with an 0-3 record against top 50 RPI teams in the non conference (Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt). In addition, Marquette lost to Gonzaga (RPI 72) and has zero wins out of the conference in the top 100. They aren't eliminated from at-large consideration by any means, but the margin for error is becoming slim.
George Mason took a big step towards securing an at-large bid with a 20 point road win at Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) tonight. VCU has now lost 3 of their last 5 games and have just a 2-3 record against top 50 RPI teams. VCU also has 3 losses against teams with RPI's of 100 or higher including a loss at Georgia State (RPI 217). Although RPI is not the final indicator of whether a team makes the tournament or not, VCU's RPI was 61 coming into tonight and will surely fall with this most recent loss. VCU travels to Wichita State for Bracketbusters this Saturday and will certainly need to win that game to have any at-large possibilities left.
Virginia Tech 91 Maryland 83
A loss tonight for Virginia Tech at home would have done a lot more damage, but getting this win propels Virginia Tech to 17-7 overall and 7-4 in ACC play. The Hokies are a mere 1-5 against teams ranked in the top 50 RPI, but they do host top 50 RPI teams Duke and Boston College in the coming weeks prior to the ACC Tournament.
Ohio State 71 Michigan State 61
A loss on the road for Michigan State drops them to 13-11 overall and 6-7 in the Big Ten but does not end the hopes of the Spartans to make the tournament. They host Top 50 RPI Illinois on Saturday and play at two other top 50 RPI teams next week in at Minnesota and home to Purdue. 2 wins would get Sparty to 8-8 in the conference and improving upon that 3-8 top 50 RPI record.
Butler 64 Green Bay 62
Butler survives a road scare at Green Bay and improves to 19-9 overall and 11-5 in the Horizon league. The Bulldogs have a 4-4 record against top 50 RPI teams. A loss tonight would have marked a sixth loss for Butler outside of the top 100 RPI teams and seriously damaged the hopes of them getting an at-large bids. Butler has two remaining games with teams with RPI's in the 200s and will likely need to win The Horizon League Tournament to get back to the NCAA Tournament that they were oh so close to winning last April.
Saint Johns 80 Marquette 68
Saint Johns improves to 16-9 overall and 8-5 in a tough Big East conference with an 80-68 road win tonight. Marquette falls to 15-11 and 6-7 in the Big East with this loss at home. Marquette falls to 3-10 against top 50 RPI teams (that's insane by the way, 13 teams?) with an 0-3 record against top 50 RPI teams in the non conference (Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt). In addition, Marquette lost to Gonzaga (RPI 72) and has zero wins out of the conference in the top 100. They aren't eliminated from at-large consideration by any means, but the margin for error is becoming slim.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Bracketology Projection #2
Bracketology Volume 2.3
Please make sure to check the breakdown on the right which will give you a better idea of how I am breaking the field down. If you have a question, please twitter it @JoeinBugaha
In addition to 21 one-bid leagues, the following teams are in my field.
Big East (11)-Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UCONN, Saint Johns, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Ten (6)-Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan St
Big 12 (7)-Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas St
SEC (5)-Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia
ACC (4)-Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College
MWC (4)-BYU, San Diego St, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3)-Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Conf USA (2)-UTEP, Memphis
Colonial (2)-Old Dominion, George Mason
Last Four In (No order)
Michigan State, Kansas State, Baylor, Colorado State
First Four Out (No Order)
UAB, Butler, Virginia Tech, VCU
Next Four Out (No Order)
Cleveland State, Wichita State, Harvard, Ole Miss)
Please make sure to check the breakdown on the right which will give you a better idea of how I am breaking the field down. If you have a question, please twitter it @JoeinBugaha
In addition to 21 one-bid leagues, the following teams are in my field.
Big East (11)-Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UCONN, Saint Johns, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Ten (6)-Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan St
Big 12 (7)-Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas St
SEC (5)-Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia
ACC (4)-Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College
MWC (4)-BYU, San Diego St, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3)-Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Conf USA (2)-UTEP, Memphis
Colonial (2)-Old Dominion, George Mason
Last Four In (No order)
Michigan State, Kansas State, Baylor, Colorado State
First Four Out (No Order)
UAB, Butler, Virginia Tech, VCU
Next Four Out (No Order)
Cleveland State, Wichita State, Harvard, Ole Miss)
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Bracketology Projection #1
Bracketology Volume 2.2
First Look at the Potential Field
We are about 33 days from Selection Sunday, but that does not mean it is too early to start projecting the field of 68 for this year’s Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament (hell, Joe Lunardi was projecting a bracket before the season started). This year the field will come from 31 automatic bids from the winner’s of the conference tournaments and 37 at-large selections. Before giving my first field, let’s breakdown the field first to give you an idea just how many at-large berths are up for grabs right now. Please note that the field is updated for games through Sunday February 6th. I pick the field using criteria including but not limited to: Overall record, Conference Record, RPI, Strength of Schedule, Top 50 RPI Record, Top 100 RPI Record, and Bad Losses (Sub 100 RPI team losses)
The One Bid Leagues (17)
The following are conferences with their current conference leader. More than likely, these conferences will only receive one bid, the winner of the conference tournament. Should the conference leader not win their conference tournament, they will receive a bid to the NIT.
Vermont (American East)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Coastal Carolina (Big South)
Long Beach St (Big West)
Princeton (Ivy)
Fairfield (MAAC)
Kent St (MAC)
Hampton (MEAC)
Long Island (Northeast)
Murray St (Ohio Valley)
Bucknell (Patriot League)
Chattanooga (Southern)
McNeese St (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Oakland (Summit)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
Potential Two Bid Leagues (7)
The following are conferences that could receive multiple bids if the conference champion fails to win their conference tournament. For now, I will project the following teams will win their own conference tournament and will not have to value them for at-large purposes.
Xavier (Atlantic 10)
VCU (Colonial)
UTEP (Conference USA)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
Saint Marys (West Coast)
Utah State (WAC)
Definite Multiple Bid Leagues
That leaves these seven conferences with multiple bid leagues.
ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Mountain West
Pacific 10
SEC
The definite locks, which include conference champions below (26)
The following are teams who I believe are definite locks to make the NCAA Tournament should the field be selected today.
ACC (Duke, North Carolina)
Big 12 (Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M)
Big East (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UCONN, West Virginia, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville)
Big Ten (Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota)
Mountain West (BYU, San Diego St)
Pacific 10 (Arizona)
SEC (Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee)
Should Be In (5)
Atlantic 10 (Temple)
Big East (Saint Johns, Cincinatti)
Mountain West (UNLV)
SEC (Georgia)
The Bubble (13)
So, if we take out seven spots for conference champions above, we have already secured 54 bids, leaving 14 left to fill the field of 68. Based on the criteria above, I have included the following teams
The First Nine
ACC (Boston College, Florida State)
Big East (Marquette)
Big 12 (Oklahoma State)
Colonial (George Mason, Old Dominion)
Pac 10 (UCLA, Washington)
SEC (Mississippi)
Last Four In (A weak bubble right now)
ACC (Virginia Tech)
Missouri Valley (Missouri State)
Mountain West (Colorado State)
Memphis (Conference USA)
First Four Out
Kansas State, Butler, UAB, Michigan State
Breakdown by Conference
Big East (11)-Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UCONN, West Virginia, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Saint Johns, Cincinnati, Marquette
SEC (6)- Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi
Big 12 (5)- Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Big 10 (5)- Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
ACC (5)- Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4)-BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Colonial (3)-VCU, George Mason, Old Dominion
Conference USA (2)-UTEP, Memphis
Atlantic 10 (2)-Xavier, Temple
Missouri Valley (2)-Wichita State, Missouri State
One Bid Conferences (20)
Vermont (American East)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Coastal Carolina (Big South)
Long Beach St (Big West)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Princeton (Ivy)
Fairfield (MAAC)
Kent St (MAC)
Hampton (MEAC)
Long Island (Northeast)
Murray St (Ohio Valley)
Bucknell (Patriot League)
Chattanooga (Southern)
McNeese St (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Oakland (Summit)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
Saint Marys (West Coast)
Utah State (WAC)
First Look at the Potential Field
We are about 33 days from Selection Sunday, but that does not mean it is too early to start projecting the field of 68 for this year’s Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament (hell, Joe Lunardi was projecting a bracket before the season started). This year the field will come from 31 automatic bids from the winner’s of the conference tournaments and 37 at-large selections. Before giving my first field, let’s breakdown the field first to give you an idea just how many at-large berths are up for grabs right now. Please note that the field is updated for games through Sunday February 6th. I pick the field using criteria including but not limited to: Overall record, Conference Record, RPI, Strength of Schedule, Top 50 RPI Record, Top 100 RPI Record, and Bad Losses (Sub 100 RPI team losses)
The One Bid Leagues (17)
The following are conferences with their current conference leader. More than likely, these conferences will only receive one bid, the winner of the conference tournament. Should the conference leader not win their conference tournament, they will receive a bid to the NIT.
Vermont (American East)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Coastal Carolina (Big South)
Long Beach St (Big West)
Princeton (Ivy)
Fairfield (MAAC)
Kent St (MAC)
Hampton (MEAC)
Long Island (Northeast)
Murray St (Ohio Valley)
Bucknell (Patriot League)
Chattanooga (Southern)
McNeese St (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Oakland (Summit)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
Potential Two Bid Leagues (7)
The following are conferences that could receive multiple bids if the conference champion fails to win their conference tournament. For now, I will project the following teams will win their own conference tournament and will not have to value them for at-large purposes.
Xavier (Atlantic 10)
VCU (Colonial)
UTEP (Conference USA)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
Saint Marys (West Coast)
Utah State (WAC)
Definite Multiple Bid Leagues
That leaves these seven conferences with multiple bid leagues.
ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Mountain West
Pacific 10
SEC
The definite locks, which include conference champions below (26)
The following are teams who I believe are definite locks to make the NCAA Tournament should the field be selected today.
ACC (Duke, North Carolina)
Big 12 (Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M)
Big East (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UCONN, West Virginia, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville)
Big Ten (Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota)
Mountain West (BYU, San Diego St)
Pacific 10 (Arizona)
SEC (Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee)
Should Be In (5)
Atlantic 10 (Temple)
Big East (Saint Johns, Cincinatti)
Mountain West (UNLV)
SEC (Georgia)
The Bubble (13)
So, if we take out seven spots for conference champions above, we have already secured 54 bids, leaving 14 left to fill the field of 68. Based on the criteria above, I have included the following teams
The First Nine
ACC (Boston College, Florida State)
Big East (Marquette)
Big 12 (Oklahoma State)
Colonial (George Mason, Old Dominion)
Pac 10 (UCLA, Washington)
SEC (Mississippi)
Last Four In (A weak bubble right now)
ACC (Virginia Tech)
Missouri Valley (Missouri State)
Mountain West (Colorado State)
Memphis (Conference USA)
First Four Out
Kansas State, Butler, UAB, Michigan State
Breakdown by Conference
Big East (11)-Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UCONN, West Virginia, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Saint Johns, Cincinnati, Marquette
SEC (6)- Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi
Big 12 (5)- Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Big 10 (5)- Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
ACC (5)- Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4)-BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Colonial (3)-VCU, George Mason, Old Dominion
Conference USA (2)-UTEP, Memphis
Atlantic 10 (2)-Xavier, Temple
Missouri Valley (2)-Wichita State, Missouri State
One Bid Conferences (20)
Vermont (American East)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Coastal Carolina (Big South)
Long Beach St (Big West)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Princeton (Ivy)
Fairfield (MAAC)
Kent St (MAC)
Hampton (MEAC)
Long Island (Northeast)
Murray St (Ohio Valley)
Bucknell (Patriot League)
Chattanooga (Southern)
McNeese St (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Oakland (Summit)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
Saint Marys (West Coast)
Utah State (WAC)
Monday, January 17, 2011
Bracketology 2011
Bracketology 2011: Update #1
For years, people like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi have undertaken the task of the predicting the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Field every year. Most years, Palm and Lunardi are right on the money, even predicting the entire field or with just one or two misses. Last year, I undertook the task of figuring out the entire field, and come Selection Sunday, I was a perfect 65 for 65 and even finished 98th in a NCAA.com "predict the field" contest scoring higher than Jerry Palm
This year, the field has expanded to 68 teams. There will be 31 automatic qualifiers from the winners of each conference tournament and 37 at-large teams. The factors that the NCAA Selection Committee evaluate when deciding an at-large selection includes but are not limited to: RPI, Overall Record, Conference Record, Strength of Schedule (SOS), Top 50 RPI Record, Top 100 RPI Record, and bad losses (sub 100 RPI). Using these factors, I was able to figure out the field last year and accurately predicted who would be left out (Mississippi State, Illinois, and Virginia Tech).
While some sites will put out an entire bracket and field right now, I will wait until the middle part of February. To me, it’s too early to predict a field, as many of the power conferences have only had the first few games of their season. However, it is never too early to take a look at some teams who need to improve if they want to be in the field come Selection Sunday.
Kansas State Wildcats
Overall Record: 12-6 (1-3)
RPI Rank: 50
SOS Rank: 30
Top 50 RPI Record (1-5)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-6)
The Wildcats were picked by many to win the Big 12 conference this year so it is big news that Kansas State has struggled out of the gate in conference play losing road games to Oklahoma State and Missouri, as well as losing their home opener to Colorado. Their lone conference win is to Sub 200 RPI Texas Tech and does nothing to help their resume. It will not get any easier for Kansas State with two of their next three games on the road (Texas A&M, Kansas). It is very possible that Kansas State will be 13-8 (2-4) in the Big 12 come January 29th. A win at either one of those places, coupled with a home win over Baylor, will help Kansas State.
North Carolina
Overall Record: 12-5 (2-1)
RPI Rank: 25
SOS Rank: 17
Top 50 RPI Record (1-4)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-4)
Sub 100 RPI Losses (Georgia Tech, 142)
Had North Carolina not gotten blown out by 20 at Georgia Tech this past Sunday, I probably would not be evaluating them right now. But between that loss and the overall health of the ACC, nobody outside of Duke is probably guaranteed a bid in the dance come Selection Sunday. Speaking of that overall health, out of the 13 remaining regular season games for North Carolina, only 5 of them are against teams in the top 50 RPI, and two of those are against conference juggernaut Duke. Many of the other opponents are against sub 100 RPI opponents or teams like Clemson (90, twice) and Maryland (91). The Heels best be careful and not have slip ups against bad teams down the stretch.
Cleveland State (Horizon League)
Record: 14-3 (5-2)
RPI Rank: 27
SOS Rank: 112
Top 50 RPI Record (0-3)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-3)
Unless they win the Horizon League Tournament, Cleveland State may have to sweat out Selection Sunday. The Vikings are off to a somewhat terrible start in league play, as they suffered two road losses to two Top 50 RPI teams in Butler and Valparaiso. Their four top 100 RPI wins have come against teams ranked between 78-99. There is not a lot of beef to this resume so their #27 RPI rating means nothing at this point. In addition, their remaining top 100 RPI opponents are against Butler and Valparaiso at home. The Vikings will also get a BracketBuster opponent who at this point, would certainly be in the top 50 RPI. But like I said, don’t let this high RPI fool you.
For years, people like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi have undertaken the task of the predicting the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Field every year. Most years, Palm and Lunardi are right on the money, even predicting the entire field or with just one or two misses. Last year, I undertook the task of figuring out the entire field, and come Selection Sunday, I was a perfect 65 for 65 and even finished 98th in a NCAA.com "predict the field" contest scoring higher than Jerry Palm
This year, the field has expanded to 68 teams. There will be 31 automatic qualifiers from the winners of each conference tournament and 37 at-large teams. The factors that the NCAA Selection Committee evaluate when deciding an at-large selection includes but are not limited to: RPI, Overall Record, Conference Record, Strength of Schedule (SOS), Top 50 RPI Record, Top 100 RPI Record, and bad losses (sub 100 RPI). Using these factors, I was able to figure out the field last year and accurately predicted who would be left out (Mississippi State, Illinois, and Virginia Tech).
While some sites will put out an entire bracket and field right now, I will wait until the middle part of February. To me, it’s too early to predict a field, as many of the power conferences have only had the first few games of their season. However, it is never too early to take a look at some teams who need to improve if they want to be in the field come Selection Sunday.
Kansas State Wildcats
Overall Record: 12-6 (1-3)
RPI Rank: 50
SOS Rank: 30
Top 50 RPI Record (1-5)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-6)
The Wildcats were picked by many to win the Big 12 conference this year so it is big news that Kansas State has struggled out of the gate in conference play losing road games to Oklahoma State and Missouri, as well as losing their home opener to Colorado. Their lone conference win is to Sub 200 RPI Texas Tech and does nothing to help their resume. It will not get any easier for Kansas State with two of their next three games on the road (Texas A&M, Kansas). It is very possible that Kansas State will be 13-8 (2-4) in the Big 12 come January 29th. A win at either one of those places, coupled with a home win over Baylor, will help Kansas State.
North Carolina
Overall Record: 12-5 (2-1)
RPI Rank: 25
SOS Rank: 17
Top 50 RPI Record (1-4)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-4)
Sub 100 RPI Losses (Georgia Tech, 142)
Had North Carolina not gotten blown out by 20 at Georgia Tech this past Sunday, I probably would not be evaluating them right now. But between that loss and the overall health of the ACC, nobody outside of Duke is probably guaranteed a bid in the dance come Selection Sunday. Speaking of that overall health, out of the 13 remaining regular season games for North Carolina, only 5 of them are against teams in the top 50 RPI, and two of those are against conference juggernaut Duke. Many of the other opponents are against sub 100 RPI opponents or teams like Clemson (90, twice) and Maryland (91). The Heels best be careful and not have slip ups against bad teams down the stretch.
Cleveland State (Horizon League)
Record: 14-3 (5-2)
RPI Rank: 27
SOS Rank: 112
Top 50 RPI Record (0-3)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-3)
Unless they win the Horizon League Tournament, Cleveland State may have to sweat out Selection Sunday. The Vikings are off to a somewhat terrible start in league play, as they suffered two road losses to two Top 50 RPI teams in Butler and Valparaiso. Their four top 100 RPI wins have come against teams ranked between 78-99. There is not a lot of beef to this resume so their #27 RPI rating means nothing at this point. In addition, their remaining top 100 RPI opponents are against Butler and Valparaiso at home. The Vikings will also get a BracketBuster opponent who at this point, would certainly be in the top 50 RPI. But like I said, don’t let this high RPI fool you.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
2011 MLB Hall of Fame Recap
On Wednesday, The Baseball Hall of Fame revealed the results of the BBWAA’s writers votes and it was no surprise to me that only two candidates were elected to the Hall of Fame. Roberto Alomar received 90% of the vote in his second year of eligibility and Bert Blyleven received 79.7% of the vote, finally surpassing that 75% vote total.
While I speculated that Alomar missed the Hall of Fame last year because of those writers who never elect someone on their first ballot, it is now clear, based on the 17% bump, that Alomar was punished by some writers for spitting in an umpire’s face during his days in Baltimore. Bert Blyleven, who many argued had a good-long career, rather than a great career, finally won over enough voters with his public demands that he be a Hall of Famer (yep, even in his moment of glory, Blyleven sounded bitter when talking about being elected to the Hall of Fame). Rather than talk about the accomplishments of these players (I did that in my last blog post), I will now look ahead to 2012 and the candidates who once again will appear on the ballot and those who will appear for the first time (Spoiler Alert, no first time candidate next year should be a Hall of Famer)
Jeff Bagwell (41% of the vote, 1st time appearance)
Steroid speculation clearly is casting a cloud over Bagwell’s Hall of Fame candidacy. Despite playing in the steroid area, Bagwell was never directly linked to steroids, despite his body having the natural development of someone who used performance enhancing drugs. Despite the fact that MLB now has PED testing, I still think we are not far enough removed from the era. Potential news or admissions of steroid use, will still come from athletes. I still think Bagwell will enter the Hall of Fame some day, assuming he is never linked or admits to steroid use. The good news for Bagwell is that time is on his side, as he has 14 more chances to get into the Hall of Fame, and he is off to a solid start with 41% of the vote.
Lee Smith (45.3%, 9 appearances)
Time may be running out for the former all time saves leader. In his ninth year on the ballot, Smith failed to gain any support (and even lost some falling from 47.3% of the ballots to 45.3% of the ballots. Things that will hurt Smith in the long run is that he is now 123 saves behind all time save leader Trevor Hoffman, and that he only appeared in two postseasons, where he has a career 0-2 record with an 8.44 ERA.
Rafael Palmeiro (11%, 1st appearance)/Mark McGwire(19.8%, 5th appearance)
The BBWAA has made it very clear: they will not support someone who was either caught using PED’s during the new MLB testing era (Palmeiro) or someone who admitted to using PED’s during his playing career (McGwire). These two players will ultimately set the standard for future HOF candidates who either are caught or admit (good luck getting into the Hall of Fame Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez or David Ortiz).
Barry Larkin (62.1%, 2nd appearance)
The day’s biggest non-elected winner is Barry Larkin. Unless he is elected in 2012, there very well could be nobody from the writer's ballot next year. He went up from 50% to 62.1% this year. With a strong second year showing, Larkin will surely make the Hall of Fame someday, as soon as next year. I myself did not see enough in Larkin’s numbers and career to warrant HOF consideration, but I will take a another look again next year. The one thing I don’t understand, and people like Joe Posnanski would agree: why is Larkin getting so much Hall of Fame consideration, while Alan Trammel is not? They are both similar players. (years, hits, home runs, rbi's, obp, gold gloves)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trammal01.shtml
Tim Raines (37.5%, 4th appearance)
Raines was the other non-elected winner in today’s vote. He has jumped from 22.6% in 2009, to 30.5% in 2009, to 37.5% in 2010, which are half the votes needed to get into the Hall of Fame. Between 1981 and 1992 he averaged an incredible 52 stolen bases per year, while having superior OBP numbers as well. Like Larkin, I will evaluate Raines again next year very closely.
Jack Morris (53.5%, 12th appearance)
I understand Jack Morris was a great big game pitcher, as evidenced by his 10 inning shutout in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. But, he still had a lifetime 3.90 ERA during a dead ball era. I was most curious to see what bump, if any, Morris would get this year. He went from 44.0% of the vote in 2009 to 52.3% of the vote in 2010. Had Morris got another 8% bump, it would have put him at 60% and given him a stronger chance of making it; however, I think in the end Morris will fall short once the 2014 ballot comes and goes.
2012 First Time Candidate (notables)
Bernie Williams
Honestly, next year is a weak ballot, and I am not going to go through all the names, you can look at that below, but Williams is the only candidate I could see being elected, although it will not be next year.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2012.shtml#BBWAA
While I speculated that Alomar missed the Hall of Fame last year because of those writers who never elect someone on their first ballot, it is now clear, based on the 17% bump, that Alomar was punished by some writers for spitting in an umpire’s face during his days in Baltimore. Bert Blyleven, who many argued had a good-long career, rather than a great career, finally won over enough voters with his public demands that he be a Hall of Famer (yep, even in his moment of glory, Blyleven sounded bitter when talking about being elected to the Hall of Fame). Rather than talk about the accomplishments of these players (I did that in my last blog post), I will now look ahead to 2012 and the candidates who once again will appear on the ballot and those who will appear for the first time (Spoiler Alert, no first time candidate next year should be a Hall of Famer)
Jeff Bagwell (41% of the vote, 1st time appearance)
Steroid speculation clearly is casting a cloud over Bagwell’s Hall of Fame candidacy. Despite playing in the steroid area, Bagwell was never directly linked to steroids, despite his body having the natural development of someone who used performance enhancing drugs. Despite the fact that MLB now has PED testing, I still think we are not far enough removed from the era. Potential news or admissions of steroid use, will still come from athletes. I still think Bagwell will enter the Hall of Fame some day, assuming he is never linked or admits to steroid use. The good news for Bagwell is that time is on his side, as he has 14 more chances to get into the Hall of Fame, and he is off to a solid start with 41% of the vote.
Lee Smith (45.3%, 9 appearances)
Time may be running out for the former all time saves leader. In his ninth year on the ballot, Smith failed to gain any support (and even lost some falling from 47.3% of the ballots to 45.3% of the ballots. Things that will hurt Smith in the long run is that he is now 123 saves behind all time save leader Trevor Hoffman, and that he only appeared in two postseasons, where he has a career 0-2 record with an 8.44 ERA.
Rafael Palmeiro (11%, 1st appearance)/Mark McGwire(19.8%, 5th appearance)
The BBWAA has made it very clear: they will not support someone who was either caught using PED’s during the new MLB testing era (Palmeiro) or someone who admitted to using PED’s during his playing career (McGwire). These two players will ultimately set the standard for future HOF candidates who either are caught or admit (good luck getting into the Hall of Fame Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez or David Ortiz).
Barry Larkin (62.1%, 2nd appearance)
The day’s biggest non-elected winner is Barry Larkin. Unless he is elected in 2012, there very well could be nobody from the writer's ballot next year. He went up from 50% to 62.1% this year. With a strong second year showing, Larkin will surely make the Hall of Fame someday, as soon as next year. I myself did not see enough in Larkin’s numbers and career to warrant HOF consideration, but I will take a another look again next year. The one thing I don’t understand, and people like Joe Posnanski would agree: why is Larkin getting so much Hall of Fame consideration, while Alan Trammel is not? They are both similar players. (years, hits, home runs, rbi's, obp, gold gloves)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trammal01.shtml
Tim Raines (37.5%, 4th appearance)
Raines was the other non-elected winner in today’s vote. He has jumped from 22.6% in 2009, to 30.5% in 2009, to 37.5% in 2010, which are half the votes needed to get into the Hall of Fame. Between 1981 and 1992 he averaged an incredible 52 stolen bases per year, while having superior OBP numbers as well. Like Larkin, I will evaluate Raines again next year very closely.
Jack Morris (53.5%, 12th appearance)
I understand Jack Morris was a great big game pitcher, as evidenced by his 10 inning shutout in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. But, he still had a lifetime 3.90 ERA during a dead ball era. I was most curious to see what bump, if any, Morris would get this year. He went from 44.0% of the vote in 2009 to 52.3% of the vote in 2010. Had Morris got another 8% bump, it would have put him at 60% and given him a stronger chance of making it; however, I think in the end Morris will fall short once the 2014 ballot comes and goes.
2012 First Time Candidate (notables)
Bernie Williams
Honestly, next year is a weak ballot, and I am not going to go through all the names, you can look at that below, but Williams is the only candidate I could see being elected, although it will not be next year.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2012.shtml#BBWAA
Monday, January 3, 2011
2011 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot
On January 5, 2011, The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) will reveal their selections for the Hall of Fame Class of 2011. The rules for the most part are simple: A candidate must be selected on 75% of ballots and one cannot be on baseball’s ineligible list (MLB). So for those who think Bud Selig needs to re-instate Pete Rose so he can go to the Hall of Fame, think again, because the writer’s made their own rule.
Naturally, I do not have a vote, but being a baseball fan, I have an opinion. Prior to reading this, I encourage you to visit the link below, which features this year’s eligible list. Once eligible (5 years after retirement), a candidate can appear on a ballot 15 times before they are taken off the ballot. The Veteran’s Committee will then have their say on candidates 15 years after they fail to enter via the BBWAA’s writers. This year, Bert Blyleven will appear on the writer’s ballots for the 15th and final time.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2011.shtml
So, without further delay, here are my selections on my mock ballot. Warning: Sabermetrics will be mentioned during some of these selections.
Bert Blyleven (15th appearance, 74.2% of ballots in 2010).
287-250, 3.31 ERA, 242 Complete games, 3701 K’s
Between 2005 and 2010, Blyleven’s name appeared on ballots but it was rather weird to see his name go up and down and then up (40.9% in 2005, 53.3% in 2006, 47.7% in 2007, 61.9% in 2008, 62.7% in 2009, and 74.2% in 2010). Therefore, one cannot assume that Blyleven will finally get that 75% total needed in this 15th and final year. However, after analyzing Blyleven and some names similar to his with the numbers he put up, I cannot argue against Blyleven’s HOF candidacy. His WAR (wins above replacement) is higher than some notable HOF pitchers such as Steve Carlton, Robin Roberts, and Nolan Ryan) and is slightly below Randy Johnson (another future HOF). It’s time to give Blyleven his due, and his plaque in Cooperstown. With Blyleven’s induction, he will no longer be the guy on the most win’s list without being in the Hall of Fame. That honor will go to Jim Kaat, who’s eligibility amongst the writer’s has come and gone (that’s another column).
Roberto Alomar (2nd appearance, 73.7% of ballots in 2010)
.300/.371/.443, 2724 Hits, 474 Stolen Bases, 10 Gold Gloves
Unlike Blyleven, I don’t forsee Alomar having an issue this year. There are a number of BBWAA writers who for whatever reason, never vote for ANYONE in their first year of eligibility. Why that is I don’t know. I mean, if you didn’t vote for Nolan Ryan or George Brett you shouldn’t have a vote (or a soul in my mind). If everyone comes back from last year, and those hard headed writers come around, Alomar will have his plaque come July 2011.
Alomar’s 10 Gold Gloves are the most amongst any second baseman and he only failed to win the Gold Glove at second base one time (1997) during a period between 1991 and 2001. When you think of the great second basemen to ever play the game, Roberto Alomar’s name belongs among them. And he deserves to have his name in Cooperstown with guys like Ryne Sandberg, Joe Morgan, and Frank White (oh wait, Frank White isn’t in, well, that’s another column...well kidding).
Lee Smith (9th appearance, 47.3% of ballots in 2010)
478 career saves (3rd all time behind Rivera and Hoffmann, 3.03 ERA)
Other relievers with less saves are in the Hall of Fame below him. Surely Rivera and Hoffmann will one day be in the Hall of Fame. So why is the man who held the all-time save record for so long not in the Hall of Fame? I’m puzzled.
Jeff Bagwell (1st appearance on ballot)
.297/.408/.540, 449 homers, 1529 RBI’s
My fourth and final name on my mock ballot is a first time candidate. I went back and forth on this; however, I believe at the end of the day that Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Fame player. Once traded for Larry Anderson (yep, who?), Bagwell was a staple in the Houston Astros organization for 15 seasons. While he put up major numbers in the now infamous “steroid era”, Bagwell was never directly linked to steroids (unlike another first time candidate Rafael Palmeiro who was caught). Bagwell won the MVP in 1994 and finished in the top 7 an additional 4 times before calling it a career in 2005.
Apologies to Jack Morris (lifetime ERA of 3.90 during mainly a dead ball era), Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, and Larry Walker.
No apologies to Mark McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro.
Naturally, I do not have a vote, but being a baseball fan, I have an opinion. Prior to reading this, I encourage you to visit the link below, which features this year’s eligible list. Once eligible (5 years after retirement), a candidate can appear on a ballot 15 times before they are taken off the ballot. The Veteran’s Committee will then have their say on candidates 15 years after they fail to enter via the BBWAA’s writers. This year, Bert Blyleven will appear on the writer’s ballots for the 15th and final time.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2011.shtml
So, without further delay, here are my selections on my mock ballot. Warning: Sabermetrics will be mentioned during some of these selections.
Bert Blyleven (15th appearance, 74.2% of ballots in 2010).
287-250, 3.31 ERA, 242 Complete games, 3701 K’s
Between 2005 and 2010, Blyleven’s name appeared on ballots but it was rather weird to see his name go up and down and then up (40.9% in 2005, 53.3% in 2006, 47.7% in 2007, 61.9% in 2008, 62.7% in 2009, and 74.2% in 2010). Therefore, one cannot assume that Blyleven will finally get that 75% total needed in this 15th and final year. However, after analyzing Blyleven and some names similar to his with the numbers he put up, I cannot argue against Blyleven’s HOF candidacy. His WAR (wins above replacement) is higher than some notable HOF pitchers such as Steve Carlton, Robin Roberts, and Nolan Ryan) and is slightly below Randy Johnson (another future HOF). It’s time to give Blyleven his due, and his plaque in Cooperstown. With Blyleven’s induction, he will no longer be the guy on the most win’s list without being in the Hall of Fame. That honor will go to Jim Kaat, who’s eligibility amongst the writer’s has come and gone (that’s another column).
Roberto Alomar (2nd appearance, 73.7% of ballots in 2010)
.300/.371/.443, 2724 Hits, 474 Stolen Bases, 10 Gold Gloves
Unlike Blyleven, I don’t forsee Alomar having an issue this year. There are a number of BBWAA writers who for whatever reason, never vote for ANYONE in their first year of eligibility. Why that is I don’t know. I mean, if you didn’t vote for Nolan Ryan or George Brett you shouldn’t have a vote (or a soul in my mind). If everyone comes back from last year, and those hard headed writers come around, Alomar will have his plaque come July 2011.
Alomar’s 10 Gold Gloves are the most amongst any second baseman and he only failed to win the Gold Glove at second base one time (1997) during a period between 1991 and 2001. When you think of the great second basemen to ever play the game, Roberto Alomar’s name belongs among them. And he deserves to have his name in Cooperstown with guys like Ryne Sandberg, Joe Morgan, and Frank White (oh wait, Frank White isn’t in, well, that’s another column...well kidding).
Lee Smith (9th appearance, 47.3% of ballots in 2010)
478 career saves (3rd all time behind Rivera and Hoffmann, 3.03 ERA)
Other relievers with less saves are in the Hall of Fame below him. Surely Rivera and Hoffmann will one day be in the Hall of Fame. So why is the man who held the all-time save record for so long not in the Hall of Fame? I’m puzzled.
Jeff Bagwell (1st appearance on ballot)
.297/.408/.540, 449 homers, 1529 RBI’s
My fourth and final name on my mock ballot is a first time candidate. I went back and forth on this; however, I believe at the end of the day that Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Fame player. Once traded for Larry Anderson (yep, who?), Bagwell was a staple in the Houston Astros organization for 15 seasons. While he put up major numbers in the now infamous “steroid era”, Bagwell was never directly linked to steroids (unlike another first time candidate Rafael Palmeiro who was caught). Bagwell won the MVP in 1994 and finished in the top 7 an additional 4 times before calling it a career in 2005.
Apologies to Jack Morris (lifetime ERA of 3.90 during mainly a dead ball era), Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, and Larry Walker.
No apologies to Mark McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro.
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