Bracketology 2011: Update #1
For years, people like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi have undertaken the task of the predicting the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Field every year. Most years, Palm and Lunardi are right on the money, even predicting the entire field or with just one or two misses. Last year, I undertook the task of figuring out the entire field, and come Selection Sunday, I was a perfect 65 for 65 and even finished 98th in a NCAA.com "predict the field" contest scoring higher than Jerry Palm
This year, the field has expanded to 68 teams. There will be 31 automatic qualifiers from the winners of each conference tournament and 37 at-large teams. The factors that the NCAA Selection Committee evaluate when deciding an at-large selection includes but are not limited to: RPI, Overall Record, Conference Record, Strength of Schedule (SOS), Top 50 RPI Record, Top 100 RPI Record, and bad losses (sub 100 RPI). Using these factors, I was able to figure out the field last year and accurately predicted who would be left out (Mississippi State, Illinois, and Virginia Tech).
While some sites will put out an entire bracket and field right now, I will wait until the middle part of February. To me, it’s too early to predict a field, as many of the power conferences have only had the first few games of their season. However, it is never too early to take a look at some teams who need to improve if they want to be in the field come Selection Sunday.
Kansas State Wildcats
Overall Record: 12-6 (1-3)
RPI Rank: 50
SOS Rank: 30
Top 50 RPI Record (1-5)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-6)
The Wildcats were picked by many to win the Big 12 conference this year so it is big news that Kansas State has struggled out of the gate in conference play losing road games to Oklahoma State and Missouri, as well as losing their home opener to Colorado. Their lone conference win is to Sub 200 RPI Texas Tech and does nothing to help their resume. It will not get any easier for Kansas State with two of their next three games on the road (Texas A&M, Kansas). It is very possible that Kansas State will be 13-8 (2-4) in the Big 12 come January 29th. A win at either one of those places, coupled with a home win over Baylor, will help Kansas State.
North Carolina
Overall Record: 12-5 (2-1)
RPI Rank: 25
SOS Rank: 17
Top 50 RPI Record (1-4)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-4)
Sub 100 RPI Losses (Georgia Tech, 142)
Had North Carolina not gotten blown out by 20 at Georgia Tech this past Sunday, I probably would not be evaluating them right now. But between that loss and the overall health of the ACC, nobody outside of Duke is probably guaranteed a bid in the dance come Selection Sunday. Speaking of that overall health, out of the 13 remaining regular season games for North Carolina, only 5 of them are against teams in the top 50 RPI, and two of those are against conference juggernaut Duke. Many of the other opponents are against sub 100 RPI opponents or teams like Clemson (90, twice) and Maryland (91). The Heels best be careful and not have slip ups against bad teams down the stretch.
Cleveland State (Horizon League)
Record: 14-3 (5-2)
RPI Rank: 27
SOS Rank: 112
Top 50 RPI Record (0-3)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-3)
Unless they win the Horizon League Tournament, Cleveland State may have to sweat out Selection Sunday. The Vikings are off to a somewhat terrible start in league play, as they suffered two road losses to two Top 50 RPI teams in Butler and Valparaiso. Their four top 100 RPI wins have come against teams ranked between 78-99. There is not a lot of beef to this resume so their #27 RPI rating means nothing at this point. In addition, their remaining top 100 RPI opponents are against Butler and Valparaiso at home. The Vikings will also get a BracketBuster opponent who at this point, would certainly be in the top 50 RPI. But like I said, don’t let this high RPI fool you.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Thursday, January 6, 2011
2011 MLB Hall of Fame Recap
On Wednesday, The Baseball Hall of Fame revealed the results of the BBWAA’s writers votes and it was no surprise to me that only two candidates were elected to the Hall of Fame. Roberto Alomar received 90% of the vote in his second year of eligibility and Bert Blyleven received 79.7% of the vote, finally surpassing that 75% vote total.
While I speculated that Alomar missed the Hall of Fame last year because of those writers who never elect someone on their first ballot, it is now clear, based on the 17% bump, that Alomar was punished by some writers for spitting in an umpire’s face during his days in Baltimore. Bert Blyleven, who many argued had a good-long career, rather than a great career, finally won over enough voters with his public demands that he be a Hall of Famer (yep, even in his moment of glory, Blyleven sounded bitter when talking about being elected to the Hall of Fame). Rather than talk about the accomplishments of these players (I did that in my last blog post), I will now look ahead to 2012 and the candidates who once again will appear on the ballot and those who will appear for the first time (Spoiler Alert, no first time candidate next year should be a Hall of Famer)
Jeff Bagwell (41% of the vote, 1st time appearance)
Steroid speculation clearly is casting a cloud over Bagwell’s Hall of Fame candidacy. Despite playing in the steroid area, Bagwell was never directly linked to steroids, despite his body having the natural development of someone who used performance enhancing drugs. Despite the fact that MLB now has PED testing, I still think we are not far enough removed from the era. Potential news or admissions of steroid use, will still come from athletes. I still think Bagwell will enter the Hall of Fame some day, assuming he is never linked or admits to steroid use. The good news for Bagwell is that time is on his side, as he has 14 more chances to get into the Hall of Fame, and he is off to a solid start with 41% of the vote.
Lee Smith (45.3%, 9 appearances)
Time may be running out for the former all time saves leader. In his ninth year on the ballot, Smith failed to gain any support (and even lost some falling from 47.3% of the ballots to 45.3% of the ballots. Things that will hurt Smith in the long run is that he is now 123 saves behind all time save leader Trevor Hoffman, and that he only appeared in two postseasons, where he has a career 0-2 record with an 8.44 ERA.
Rafael Palmeiro (11%, 1st appearance)/Mark McGwire(19.8%, 5th appearance)
The BBWAA has made it very clear: they will not support someone who was either caught using PED’s during the new MLB testing era (Palmeiro) or someone who admitted to using PED’s during his playing career (McGwire). These two players will ultimately set the standard for future HOF candidates who either are caught or admit (good luck getting into the Hall of Fame Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez or David Ortiz).
Barry Larkin (62.1%, 2nd appearance)
The day’s biggest non-elected winner is Barry Larkin. Unless he is elected in 2012, there very well could be nobody from the writer's ballot next year. He went up from 50% to 62.1% this year. With a strong second year showing, Larkin will surely make the Hall of Fame someday, as soon as next year. I myself did not see enough in Larkin’s numbers and career to warrant HOF consideration, but I will take a another look again next year. The one thing I don’t understand, and people like Joe Posnanski would agree: why is Larkin getting so much Hall of Fame consideration, while Alan Trammel is not? They are both similar players. (years, hits, home runs, rbi's, obp, gold gloves)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trammal01.shtml
Tim Raines (37.5%, 4th appearance)
Raines was the other non-elected winner in today’s vote. He has jumped from 22.6% in 2009, to 30.5% in 2009, to 37.5% in 2010, which are half the votes needed to get into the Hall of Fame. Between 1981 and 1992 he averaged an incredible 52 stolen bases per year, while having superior OBP numbers as well. Like Larkin, I will evaluate Raines again next year very closely.
Jack Morris (53.5%, 12th appearance)
I understand Jack Morris was a great big game pitcher, as evidenced by his 10 inning shutout in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. But, he still had a lifetime 3.90 ERA during a dead ball era. I was most curious to see what bump, if any, Morris would get this year. He went from 44.0% of the vote in 2009 to 52.3% of the vote in 2010. Had Morris got another 8% bump, it would have put him at 60% and given him a stronger chance of making it; however, I think in the end Morris will fall short once the 2014 ballot comes and goes.
2012 First Time Candidate (notables)
Bernie Williams
Honestly, next year is a weak ballot, and I am not going to go through all the names, you can look at that below, but Williams is the only candidate I could see being elected, although it will not be next year.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2012.shtml#BBWAA
While I speculated that Alomar missed the Hall of Fame last year because of those writers who never elect someone on their first ballot, it is now clear, based on the 17% bump, that Alomar was punished by some writers for spitting in an umpire’s face during his days in Baltimore. Bert Blyleven, who many argued had a good-long career, rather than a great career, finally won over enough voters with his public demands that he be a Hall of Famer (yep, even in his moment of glory, Blyleven sounded bitter when talking about being elected to the Hall of Fame). Rather than talk about the accomplishments of these players (I did that in my last blog post), I will now look ahead to 2012 and the candidates who once again will appear on the ballot and those who will appear for the first time (Spoiler Alert, no first time candidate next year should be a Hall of Famer)
Jeff Bagwell (41% of the vote, 1st time appearance)
Steroid speculation clearly is casting a cloud over Bagwell’s Hall of Fame candidacy. Despite playing in the steroid area, Bagwell was never directly linked to steroids, despite his body having the natural development of someone who used performance enhancing drugs. Despite the fact that MLB now has PED testing, I still think we are not far enough removed from the era. Potential news or admissions of steroid use, will still come from athletes. I still think Bagwell will enter the Hall of Fame some day, assuming he is never linked or admits to steroid use. The good news for Bagwell is that time is on his side, as he has 14 more chances to get into the Hall of Fame, and he is off to a solid start with 41% of the vote.
Lee Smith (45.3%, 9 appearances)
Time may be running out for the former all time saves leader. In his ninth year on the ballot, Smith failed to gain any support (and even lost some falling from 47.3% of the ballots to 45.3% of the ballots. Things that will hurt Smith in the long run is that he is now 123 saves behind all time save leader Trevor Hoffman, and that he only appeared in two postseasons, where he has a career 0-2 record with an 8.44 ERA.
Rafael Palmeiro (11%, 1st appearance)/Mark McGwire(19.8%, 5th appearance)
The BBWAA has made it very clear: they will not support someone who was either caught using PED’s during the new MLB testing era (Palmeiro) or someone who admitted to using PED’s during his playing career (McGwire). These two players will ultimately set the standard for future HOF candidates who either are caught or admit (good luck getting into the Hall of Fame Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez or David Ortiz).
Barry Larkin (62.1%, 2nd appearance)
The day’s biggest non-elected winner is Barry Larkin. Unless he is elected in 2012, there very well could be nobody from the writer's ballot next year. He went up from 50% to 62.1% this year. With a strong second year showing, Larkin will surely make the Hall of Fame someday, as soon as next year. I myself did not see enough in Larkin’s numbers and career to warrant HOF consideration, but I will take a another look again next year. The one thing I don’t understand, and people like Joe Posnanski would agree: why is Larkin getting so much Hall of Fame consideration, while Alan Trammel is not? They are both similar players. (years, hits, home runs, rbi's, obp, gold gloves)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trammal01.shtml
Tim Raines (37.5%, 4th appearance)
Raines was the other non-elected winner in today’s vote. He has jumped from 22.6% in 2009, to 30.5% in 2009, to 37.5% in 2010, which are half the votes needed to get into the Hall of Fame. Between 1981 and 1992 he averaged an incredible 52 stolen bases per year, while having superior OBP numbers as well. Like Larkin, I will evaluate Raines again next year very closely.
Jack Morris (53.5%, 12th appearance)
I understand Jack Morris was a great big game pitcher, as evidenced by his 10 inning shutout in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. But, he still had a lifetime 3.90 ERA during a dead ball era. I was most curious to see what bump, if any, Morris would get this year. He went from 44.0% of the vote in 2009 to 52.3% of the vote in 2010. Had Morris got another 8% bump, it would have put him at 60% and given him a stronger chance of making it; however, I think in the end Morris will fall short once the 2014 ballot comes and goes.
2012 First Time Candidate (notables)
Bernie Williams
Honestly, next year is a weak ballot, and I am not going to go through all the names, you can look at that below, but Williams is the only candidate I could see being elected, although it will not be next year.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2012.shtml#BBWAA
Monday, January 3, 2011
2011 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot
On January 5, 2011, The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) will reveal their selections for the Hall of Fame Class of 2011. The rules for the most part are simple: A candidate must be selected on 75% of ballots and one cannot be on baseball’s ineligible list (MLB). So for those who think Bud Selig needs to re-instate Pete Rose so he can go to the Hall of Fame, think again, because the writer’s made their own rule.
Naturally, I do not have a vote, but being a baseball fan, I have an opinion. Prior to reading this, I encourage you to visit the link below, which features this year’s eligible list. Once eligible (5 years after retirement), a candidate can appear on a ballot 15 times before they are taken off the ballot. The Veteran’s Committee will then have their say on candidates 15 years after they fail to enter via the BBWAA’s writers. This year, Bert Blyleven will appear on the writer’s ballots for the 15th and final time.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2011.shtml
So, without further delay, here are my selections on my mock ballot. Warning: Sabermetrics will be mentioned during some of these selections.
Bert Blyleven (15th appearance, 74.2% of ballots in 2010).
287-250, 3.31 ERA, 242 Complete games, 3701 K’s
Between 2005 and 2010, Blyleven’s name appeared on ballots but it was rather weird to see his name go up and down and then up (40.9% in 2005, 53.3% in 2006, 47.7% in 2007, 61.9% in 2008, 62.7% in 2009, and 74.2% in 2010). Therefore, one cannot assume that Blyleven will finally get that 75% total needed in this 15th and final year. However, after analyzing Blyleven and some names similar to his with the numbers he put up, I cannot argue against Blyleven’s HOF candidacy. His WAR (wins above replacement) is higher than some notable HOF pitchers such as Steve Carlton, Robin Roberts, and Nolan Ryan) and is slightly below Randy Johnson (another future HOF). It’s time to give Blyleven his due, and his plaque in Cooperstown. With Blyleven’s induction, he will no longer be the guy on the most win’s list without being in the Hall of Fame. That honor will go to Jim Kaat, who’s eligibility amongst the writer’s has come and gone (that’s another column).
Roberto Alomar (2nd appearance, 73.7% of ballots in 2010)
.300/.371/.443, 2724 Hits, 474 Stolen Bases, 10 Gold Gloves
Unlike Blyleven, I don’t forsee Alomar having an issue this year. There are a number of BBWAA writers who for whatever reason, never vote for ANYONE in their first year of eligibility. Why that is I don’t know. I mean, if you didn’t vote for Nolan Ryan or George Brett you shouldn’t have a vote (or a soul in my mind). If everyone comes back from last year, and those hard headed writers come around, Alomar will have his plaque come July 2011.
Alomar’s 10 Gold Gloves are the most amongst any second baseman and he only failed to win the Gold Glove at second base one time (1997) during a period between 1991 and 2001. When you think of the great second basemen to ever play the game, Roberto Alomar’s name belongs among them. And he deserves to have his name in Cooperstown with guys like Ryne Sandberg, Joe Morgan, and Frank White (oh wait, Frank White isn’t in, well, that’s another column...well kidding).
Lee Smith (9th appearance, 47.3% of ballots in 2010)
478 career saves (3rd all time behind Rivera and Hoffmann, 3.03 ERA)
Other relievers with less saves are in the Hall of Fame below him. Surely Rivera and Hoffmann will one day be in the Hall of Fame. So why is the man who held the all-time save record for so long not in the Hall of Fame? I’m puzzled.
Jeff Bagwell (1st appearance on ballot)
.297/.408/.540, 449 homers, 1529 RBI’s
My fourth and final name on my mock ballot is a first time candidate. I went back and forth on this; however, I believe at the end of the day that Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Fame player. Once traded for Larry Anderson (yep, who?), Bagwell was a staple in the Houston Astros organization for 15 seasons. While he put up major numbers in the now infamous “steroid era”, Bagwell was never directly linked to steroids (unlike another first time candidate Rafael Palmeiro who was caught). Bagwell won the MVP in 1994 and finished in the top 7 an additional 4 times before calling it a career in 2005.
Apologies to Jack Morris (lifetime ERA of 3.90 during mainly a dead ball era), Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, and Larry Walker.
No apologies to Mark McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro.
Naturally, I do not have a vote, but being a baseball fan, I have an opinion. Prior to reading this, I encourage you to visit the link below, which features this year’s eligible list. Once eligible (5 years after retirement), a candidate can appear on a ballot 15 times before they are taken off the ballot. The Veteran’s Committee will then have their say on candidates 15 years after they fail to enter via the BBWAA’s writers. This year, Bert Blyleven will appear on the writer’s ballots for the 15th and final time.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2011.shtml
So, without further delay, here are my selections on my mock ballot. Warning: Sabermetrics will be mentioned during some of these selections.
Bert Blyleven (15th appearance, 74.2% of ballots in 2010).
287-250, 3.31 ERA, 242 Complete games, 3701 K’s
Between 2005 and 2010, Blyleven’s name appeared on ballots but it was rather weird to see his name go up and down and then up (40.9% in 2005, 53.3% in 2006, 47.7% in 2007, 61.9% in 2008, 62.7% in 2009, and 74.2% in 2010). Therefore, one cannot assume that Blyleven will finally get that 75% total needed in this 15th and final year. However, after analyzing Blyleven and some names similar to his with the numbers he put up, I cannot argue against Blyleven’s HOF candidacy. His WAR (wins above replacement) is higher than some notable HOF pitchers such as Steve Carlton, Robin Roberts, and Nolan Ryan) and is slightly below Randy Johnson (another future HOF). It’s time to give Blyleven his due, and his plaque in Cooperstown. With Blyleven’s induction, he will no longer be the guy on the most win’s list without being in the Hall of Fame. That honor will go to Jim Kaat, who’s eligibility amongst the writer’s has come and gone (that’s another column).
Roberto Alomar (2nd appearance, 73.7% of ballots in 2010)
.300/.371/.443, 2724 Hits, 474 Stolen Bases, 10 Gold Gloves
Unlike Blyleven, I don’t forsee Alomar having an issue this year. There are a number of BBWAA writers who for whatever reason, never vote for ANYONE in their first year of eligibility. Why that is I don’t know. I mean, if you didn’t vote for Nolan Ryan or George Brett you shouldn’t have a vote (or a soul in my mind). If everyone comes back from last year, and those hard headed writers come around, Alomar will have his plaque come July 2011.
Alomar’s 10 Gold Gloves are the most amongst any second baseman and he only failed to win the Gold Glove at second base one time (1997) during a period between 1991 and 2001. When you think of the great second basemen to ever play the game, Roberto Alomar’s name belongs among them. And he deserves to have his name in Cooperstown with guys like Ryne Sandberg, Joe Morgan, and Frank White (oh wait, Frank White isn’t in, well, that’s another column...well kidding).
Lee Smith (9th appearance, 47.3% of ballots in 2010)
478 career saves (3rd all time behind Rivera and Hoffmann, 3.03 ERA)
Other relievers with less saves are in the Hall of Fame below him. Surely Rivera and Hoffmann will one day be in the Hall of Fame. So why is the man who held the all-time save record for so long not in the Hall of Fame? I’m puzzled.
Jeff Bagwell (1st appearance on ballot)
.297/.408/.540, 449 homers, 1529 RBI’s
My fourth and final name on my mock ballot is a first time candidate. I went back and forth on this; however, I believe at the end of the day that Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Fame player. Once traded for Larry Anderson (yep, who?), Bagwell was a staple in the Houston Astros organization for 15 seasons. While he put up major numbers in the now infamous “steroid era”, Bagwell was never directly linked to steroids (unlike another first time candidate Rafael Palmeiro who was caught). Bagwell won the MVP in 1994 and finished in the top 7 an additional 4 times before calling it a career in 2005.
Apologies to Jack Morris (lifetime ERA of 3.90 during mainly a dead ball era), Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, and Larry Walker.
No apologies to Mark McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
