2011 MLB Hall of Fame Recap

On Wednesday, The Baseball Hall of Fame revealed the results of the BBWAA’s writers votes and it was no surprise to me that only two candidates were elected to the Hall of Fame. Roberto Alomar received 90% of the vote in his second year of eligibility and Bert Blyleven received 79.7% of the vote, finally surpassing that 75% vote total.

While I speculated that Alomar missed the Hall of Fame last year because of those writers who never elect someone on their first ballot, it is now clear, based on the 17% bump, that Alomar was punished by some writers for spitting in an umpire’s face during his days in Baltimore. Bert Blyleven, who many argued had a good-long career, rather than a great career, finally won over enough voters with his public demands that he be a Hall of Famer (yep, even in his moment of glory, Blyleven sounded bitter when talking about being elected to the Hall of Fame). Rather than talk about the accomplishments of these players (I did that in my last blog post), I will now look ahead to 2012 and the candidates who once again will appear on the ballot and those who will appear for the first time (Spoiler Alert, no first time candidate next year should be a Hall of Famer)

Jeff Bagwell (41% of the vote, 1st time appearance)

Steroid speculation clearly is casting a cloud over Bagwell’s Hall of Fame candidacy. Despite playing in the steroid area, Bagwell was never directly linked to steroids, despite his body having the natural development of someone who used performance enhancing drugs. Despite the fact that MLB now has PED testing, I still think we are not far enough removed from the era. Potential news or admissions of steroid use, will still come from athletes. I still think Bagwell will enter the Hall of Fame some day, assuming he is never linked or admits to steroid use. The good news for Bagwell is that time is on his side, as he has 14 more chances to get into the Hall of Fame, and he is off to a solid start with 41% of the vote.

Lee Smith (45.3%, 9 appearances)

Time may be running out for the former all time saves leader. In his ninth year on the ballot, Smith failed to gain any support (and even lost some falling from 47.3% of the ballots to 45.3% of the ballots. Things that will hurt Smith in the long run is that he is now 123 saves behind all time save leader Trevor Hoffman, and that he only appeared in two postseasons, where he has a career 0-2 record with an 8.44 ERA.

Rafael Palmeiro (11%, 1st appearance)/Mark McGwire(19.8%, 5th appearance)

The BBWAA has made it very clear: they will not support someone who was either caught using PED’s during the new MLB testing era (Palmeiro) or someone who admitted to using PED’s during his playing career (McGwire). These two players will ultimately set the standard for future HOF candidates who either are caught or admit (good luck getting into the Hall of Fame Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez or David Ortiz).

Barry Larkin (62.1%, 2nd appearance)

The day’s biggest non-elected winner is Barry Larkin. Unless he is elected in 2012, there very well could be nobody from the writer's ballot next year. He went up from 50% to 62.1% this year. With a strong second year showing, Larkin will surely make the Hall of Fame someday, as soon as next year. I myself did not see enough in Larkin’s numbers and career to warrant HOF consideration, but I will take a another look again next year. The one thing I don’t understand, and people like Joe Posnanski would agree: why is Larkin getting so much Hall of Fame consideration, while Alan Trammel is not? They are both similar players. (years, hits, home runs, rbi's, obp, gold gloves)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trammal01.shtml

Tim Raines (37.5%, 4th appearance)

Raines was the other non-elected winner in today’s vote. He has jumped from 22.6% in 2009, to 30.5% in 2009, to 37.5% in 2010, which are half the votes needed to get into the Hall of Fame. Between 1981 and 1992 he averaged an incredible 52 stolen bases per year, while having superior OBP numbers as well. Like Larkin, I will evaluate Raines again next year very closely.

Jack Morris (53.5%, 12th appearance)

I understand Jack Morris was a great big game pitcher, as evidenced by his 10 inning shutout in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. But, he still had a lifetime 3.90 ERA during a dead ball era. I was most curious to see what bump, if any, Morris would get this year. He went from 44.0% of the vote in 2009 to 52.3% of the vote in 2010. Had Morris got another 8% bump, it would have put him at 60% and given him a stronger chance of making it; however, I think in the end Morris will fall short once the 2014 ballot comes and goes.

2012 First Time Candidate (notables)

Bernie Williams

Honestly, next year is a weak ballot, and I am not going to go through all the names, you can look at that below, but Williams is the only candidate I could see being elected, although it will not be next year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2012.shtml#BBWAA