Bracketology 2011

Bracketology 2011: Update #1

For years, people like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi have undertaken the task of the predicting the Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Field every year. Most years, Palm and Lunardi are right on the money, even predicting the entire field or with just one or two misses. Last year, I undertook the task of figuring out the entire field, and come Selection Sunday, I was a perfect 65 for 65 and even finished 98th in a NCAA.com "predict the field" contest scoring higher than Jerry Palm

This year, the field has expanded to 68 teams. There will be 31 automatic qualifiers from the winners of each conference tournament and 37 at-large teams. The factors that the NCAA Selection Committee evaluate when deciding an at-large selection includes but are not limited to: RPI, Overall Record, Conference Record, Strength of Schedule (SOS), Top 50 RPI Record, Top 100 RPI Record, and bad losses (sub 100 RPI). Using these factors, I was able to figure out the field last year and accurately predicted who would be left out (Mississippi State, Illinois, and Virginia Tech).

While some sites will put out an entire bracket and field right now, I will wait until the middle part of February. To me, it’s too early to predict a field, as many of the power conferences have only had the first few games of their season. However, it is never too early to take a look at some teams who need to improve if they want to be in the field come Selection Sunday.

Kansas State Wildcats

Overall Record: 12-6 (1-3)
RPI Rank: 50
SOS Rank: 30
Top 50 RPI Record (1-5)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-6)

The Wildcats were picked by many to win the Big 12 conference this year so it is big news that Kansas State has struggled out of the gate in conference play losing road games to Oklahoma State and Missouri, as well as losing their home opener to Colorado. Their lone conference win is to Sub 200 RPI Texas Tech and does nothing to help their resume. It will not get any easier for Kansas State with two of their next three games on the road (Texas A&M, Kansas). It is very possible that Kansas State will be 13-8 (2-4) in the Big 12 come January 29th. A win at either one of those places, coupled with a home win over Baylor, will help Kansas State.

North Carolina

Overall Record: 12-5 (2-1)
RPI Rank: 25
SOS Rank: 17
Top 50 RPI Record (1-4)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-4)
Sub 100 RPI Losses (Georgia Tech, 142)

Had North Carolina not gotten blown out by 20 at Georgia Tech this past Sunday, I probably would not be evaluating them right now. But between that loss and the overall health of the ACC, nobody outside of Duke is probably guaranteed a bid in the dance come Selection Sunday. Speaking of that overall health, out of the 13 remaining regular season games for North Carolina, only 5 of them are against teams in the top 50 RPI, and two of those are against conference juggernaut Duke. Many of the other opponents are against sub 100 RPI opponents or teams like Clemson (90, twice) and Maryland (91). The Heels best be careful and not have slip ups against bad teams down the stretch.
Cleveland State (Horizon League)

Record: 14-3 (5-2)
RPI Rank: 27
SOS Rank: 112
Top 50 RPI Record (0-3)
Top 100 RPI Record (4-3)

Unless they win the Horizon League Tournament, Cleveland State may have to sweat out Selection Sunday. The Vikings are off to a somewhat terrible start in league play, as they suffered two road losses to two Top 50 RPI teams in Butler and Valparaiso. Their four top 100 RPI wins have come against teams ranked between 78-99. There is not a lot of beef to this resume so their #27 RPI rating means nothing at this point. In addition, their remaining top 100 RPI opponents are against Butler and Valparaiso at home. The Vikings will also get a BracketBuster opponent who at this point, would certainly be in the top 50 RPI. But like I said, don’t let this high RPI fool you.