February 21, 2011 Bracketology Update

Conference Breakdown

Big East (11)
Big Ten (6)
Big Twelve (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Pac 10 (3)
Atlantic Ten (3)
Horizon (2)
CAA (2)

On my right you will find my latest projection for the field of 68. As of right now, I have 13 teams on the bubble, but I would say that Washington, Illinois, Michigan State, and Florida State are closer to the "should be in" category than the bubble. The rest of the list could easily fall off the bubble with a loss; however, to be truthful, the bubble is pretty weak right now and there is still a lot of room out there for teams that are not even listed amongst the first four out (such as Nebraska) to make an impression and get an at-large bid.

One thing that the committee may have to take into consideration are some of the teams from those "one-bid leagues" that may lose their conference tournament and enter at-large consideration. I firmly believe that George Mason and Old Dominion would get at-large bids out of the Colonial should one of those teams fail to win that conference tournament. But, lets go over the profiles of some teams that I have not had to evaluate yet, but may have to in the future.

Utah State (24-3, 12-1 in Conference)
Conference: Western Athletic
RPI: 19
SOS: 106
Top 50 RPI record: 1-2
Top 100 RPI record: 1-2
Bad Losses: at Idaho RPI 156

The Aggies went on the road early this season for games at BYU and Georgetown; however, came out 6 point losers in Provo and 17 point losers in D.C. The only other game of significance was Saturday's Bracketbuster game at Saint Mary's where the Aggies came out with a 10 point win. Last year Utah State failed to win the WAC tourney; however, they had 13 games within the top 100 RPI and had a 9-4 record. Right now, I fail to see even with an RPI of 19 how Utah State gets an at-large bid; however, it could be a long 24 hours for Utah St and other bubble teams if Utah State does not secure that autobid.

Saint Mary's (20-6, 10-2 in conference)
Conference: West Coast Conference
RPI: 46
SOS: 126
Top 50 RPI record: 1-4
Top 100 RPI Record: 2-5

The Gaels opened the year with a win over Saint Johns but it remains their only top 50 RPI win of the year. Losing to Utah State but a real dagger in the at-large chances of Saint Marys. I could maybe see Saint Marys getting an at-large bid if they finish off the regular season with wins over Gonzaga and Portland and reaching the WCC title game. However, should the Gaels defeat Portland, it will probably send Portland out of the top 100 RPI, negating that win, and also, giving the Gaels a loss outside the top 100 RPI (Portland on January 29th). Gonzaga, with 13 games inside the top 100 RPI (6-7 record) probably has a better at-large resume for the WCC, despite their lower RPI (71)

Memphis (20-7, 8-4 conference)
Conference: Conference USA
RPI: 35
SOS: 40
Top 50 RPI Record: 4-3
Top 100 RPI Record: 9-5

There are still a couple C-USA teams considered on the bubble at the moment; however, right now I would probably have Memphis in the "should be in" category, so if memphis doesn't do anything disastrous on the way towards the Conference USA tournament, they should still be OK come Selection Sunday if they don't win the league tourney championship.

Horizon League Breakdown

The Horizon league is kind of interesting. Right now, Cleveland State is winning the conference with a 12-4 record and a 21-6 record overall. They have an RPI of 35 and a SOS of 108. The problem for them is that they are only 1-5 against the top 50 RPI while their conference counterpart Butler is 4-4 against the top 50 RPI. Now, Butler does have 4 losses against teams with RPI's over 100 while Cleveland State only has 1. For now, both have bids, but I would hate to be either of these teams if they do not win the Horizon League Tournament.