Bracketology Projection #1

Bracketology Volume 2.2

First Look at the Potential Field

We are about 33 days from Selection Sunday, but that does not mean it is too early to start projecting the field of 68 for this year’s Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament (hell, Joe Lunardi was projecting a bracket before the season started). This year the field will come from 31 automatic bids from the winner’s of the conference tournaments and 37 at-large selections. Before giving my first field, let’s breakdown the field first to give you an idea just how many at-large berths are up for grabs right now. Please note that the field is updated for games through Sunday February 6th. I pick the field using criteria including but not limited to: Overall record, Conference Record, RPI, Strength of Schedule, Top 50 RPI Record, Top 100 RPI Record, and Bad Losses (Sub 100 RPI team losses)

The One Bid Leagues (17)

The following are conferences with their current conference leader. More than likely, these conferences will only receive one bid, the winner of the conference tournament. Should the conference leader not win their conference tournament, they will receive a bid to the NIT.

Vermont (American East)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Coastal Carolina (Big South)
Long Beach St (Big West)
Princeton (Ivy)
Fairfield (MAAC)
Kent St (MAC)
Hampton (MEAC)
Long Island (Northeast)
Murray St (Ohio Valley)
Bucknell (Patriot League)
Chattanooga (Southern)
McNeese St (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Oakland (Summit)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)

Potential Two Bid Leagues (7)

The following are conferences that could receive multiple bids if the conference champion fails to win their conference tournament. For now, I will project the following teams will win their own conference tournament and will not have to value them for at-large purposes.

Xavier (Atlantic 10)
VCU (Colonial)
UTEP (Conference USA)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
Saint Marys (West Coast)
Utah State (WAC)

Definite Multiple Bid Leagues

That leaves these seven conferences with multiple bid leagues.

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Mountain West
Pacific 10
SEC

The definite locks, which include conference champions below (26)

The following are teams who I believe are definite locks to make the NCAA Tournament should the field be selected today.

ACC (Duke, North Carolina)
Big 12 (Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M)
Big East (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UCONN, West Virginia, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville)
Big Ten (Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota)
Mountain West (BYU, San Diego St)
Pacific 10 (Arizona)
SEC (Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee)

Should Be In (5)

Atlantic 10 (Temple)
Big East (Saint Johns, Cincinatti)
Mountain West (UNLV)
SEC (Georgia)

The Bubble (13)

So, if we take out seven spots for conference champions above, we have already secured 54 bids, leaving 14 left to fill the field of 68. Based on the criteria above, I have included the following teams

The First Nine

ACC (Boston College, Florida State)
Big East (Marquette)
Big 12 (Oklahoma State)
Colonial (George Mason, Old Dominion)
Pac 10 (UCLA, Washington)
SEC (Mississippi)

Last Four In (A weak bubble right now)

ACC (Virginia Tech)
Missouri Valley (Missouri State)
Mountain West (Colorado State)
Memphis (Conference USA)

First Four Out
Kansas State, Butler, UAB, Michigan State


Breakdown by Conference

Big East (11)-Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UCONN, West Virginia, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Saint Johns, Cincinnati, Marquette
SEC (6)- Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi
Big 12 (5)- Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Big 10 (5)- Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
ACC (5)- Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4)-BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
Pac 10 (3)-Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Colonial (3)-VCU, George Mason, Old Dominion
Conference USA (2)-UTEP, Memphis
Atlantic 10 (2)-Xavier, Temple
Missouri Valley (2)-Wichita State, Missouri State

One Bid Conferences (20)

Vermont (American East)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Coastal Carolina (Big South)
Long Beach St (Big West)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Princeton (Ivy)
Fairfield (MAAC)
Kent St (MAC)
Hampton (MEAC)
Long Island (Northeast)
Murray St (Ohio Valley)
Bucknell (Patriot League)
Chattanooga (Southern)
McNeese St (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Oakland (Summit)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
Saint Marys (West Coast)
Utah State (WAC)