Friday, March 10th, Bracketology update

After going over all the information this morning, I am going to backtrack on my statements that Colorado and Michigan State are "locks." I think they are in better shape than others as right now, I think 8 bubble slots remain open for the taking. Marquette, despite losing to Louisville in the Big East quarters, has locked up the 11th bid for The Big East. Georgia could find itself on the bubble if they lose to Alabama today; however, despite whatever Joe Lunardi thinks, I believe they will be in the field no matter what on selection Sunday.

As of right now the following 8 teams are in my field, but squarely on the bubble. Clemson, Richmond, VCU, and USC are on my "last Four in" list

Colorado (Big 12 semifinals vs Kansas)
Michigan State (Big Ten quarters vs Purdue)
Michigan (Big Ten quarters vs Illinois)
Virginia Tech (ACC quarters vs Florida State)
Clemson (ACC quarters vs Boston College)
Richmond (A-10 quarters vs Rhode Island)
VCU (lost to Old Dominion in CAA Finals)
USC (Pac 10 semifinals vs Oregon)

As you can see, 7 of the 8 teams in my list have games today. USC lost the most yesterday when Oregon eliminated UCLA in the Pac 10 quarterfinals, as they now have one less quality opponent they can beat. USC is 6-5 vs the top 50 RPI but have 6 losses against teams ranked with RPI's of 100+. I don't think USC can survive a loss today. Although I have them in today, I think they will need to get to the Pac 10 tournament to secure a bid.

I do think Colorado and Michigan State can afford losses today and still get in. Clemson vs Boston College is a classic bubble game. The winner is on the bubble, the loser is probably off. Richmond cannot afford a bad loss to Rhode Island today and may need to reach the A-10 finals to be safe. VCU is in a tough position. They have 3 top 50 RPI wins an additional 5 wins from RPI's 51-100. But their season is over, and they can no longer impress the committee.

ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN.

Alabama (SEC quarters vs Georgia)

Alabama needs a win over Georgia today to get back in the conversation. Their 12 SEC wins sound impressive, but it looks very unimpressive on paper.

Boston College (ACC quarters vs Clemson)

As mentioned above, they can get right back on the bubble by beating Boston College.

Penn State (Big Ten quarters vs Wisconsin)

The Nittany Lions could desperately use a second win over Wisconsin today to get in the conversation.

Saint Marys (lost to Gonzaga in WCC finals)

The Gaels had a nice year. Their lone top 50 RPI win was a season opening win versus Saint Johns and they haven't done much since. Like VCU, there is nothing more they can do, but VCU did more than them this year

Memphis (C-USA semis vs East Carolina)

All of the 4 top 50 RPI wins for Memphis came within the conference and their best nonn conference win was against Miami (RPI 68). Memphis is better off winning the C-USA auto bid at this point and can with two more wins.

New Mexico (MWC semis vs BYU)

New Mexico is not an at-large candidate, but they would steal a bid. They already beat BYU twice this year. Three times is not out of the question)

Utah State (WAC vs San Jose State)

Despite a high RPI, Utah State is no lock for an at-large. They can't afford to slip up in the conference tourney like they did last year.

No Longer Under Consideration

UAB
Colorado State
Baylor
California
Washington State
Nebraska
Harvard/Princeton loser
Ole Miss
Oklahoma State

If you don't see your team mentioned on here, and they are lucky enough to still be playing, you better hope they get an automatic bid.